The ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran has once again demonstrated a stark truth about modern warfare: the decisive edge no longer lies in tanks, fighter jets, or even missiles alone, but increasingly in swarms of cheap, expendable, and intelligent unmanned systems. From the deployment of Iran’s Shahed-series loitering munitions to America’s reverse-engineered low-cost strike platforms, the conflict has underlined a structural shift in how wars are fought and sustained.Unmanned aerial systems are no longer auxiliary assets. They are shaping strategy, dictating tempo, and redefining cost equations. A drone costing tens of thousands of dollars can now neutralise assets worth millions, if not more. In such a scenario, endurance, scalability, and production capacity matter as much as technological sophistication.
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It is within this rapidly evolving global battlefield that India is attempting to define its own drone doctrine. The country’s experience during Operation Sindoor in May 2025 marked a transition point. For the first time, drones were not merely surveillance tools but central to operational planning, execution, and battlefield outcomes. Yet, even as India demonstrated capability, a deeper question emerged: can it scale?
The age of cheap precision: Why drones are redefining warfare
The defining lesson from recent conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran confrontation is simple. Warfare has entered an era where affordability and mass production are as critical as precision.Loitering munitions, often described as kamikaze drones, exemplify this shift. These systems combine the persistence of surveillance platforms with the lethality of guided munitions. They can loiter over a target area, identify opportunities, and strike with minimal warning. Unlike traditional missiles, they are relatively inexpensive and can be deployed in large numbers.
Iran’s Shahed-136 has become the archetype of this model. With a range of around 2,000 kilometres and a modest warhead, it is not technologically advanced. Yet its strength lies in its simplicity and scalability. Produced in large numbers, it has altered the economics of air defence by forcing adversaries to expend costly interceptors on low-cost threats.
The United States has acknowledged this shift. Its Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System, developed by reverse-engineering captured Shahed drones, reflects a pragmatic recognition that the future of warfare lies not in exquisite platforms alone but in mass-producible systems.This is the benchmark against which all emerging drone powers, including India, are now measured.
Where India stands in the global drone race
India today occupies a transitional space in the global drone hierarchy, positioned somewhere between technological competence and industrial under-preparedness. It is neither a laggard nor a leader. Instead, it is a capable but constrained player attempting to bridge the gap between innovation and scale in an ecosystem that is rapidly being defined by mass production and cost efficiency.At a capability level, India has made undeniable progress. Over the past decade, it has developed or inducted systems across the entire drone spectrum, from high-altitude long-endurance platforms to tactical surveillance UAVs, loitering munitions, and counter-drone technologies. Indigenous programmes such as Nagastra, ALS-50, and Switch UAVs demonstrate that Indian industry can design and deploy mission-ready systems tailored to diverse terrains, from deserts to high-altitude borders. Operation Sindoor reinforced this reality by showing that Indian forces can integrate drones into real-time combat scenarios with measurable impact.However, global leadership in drone warfare is no longer determined by the ability to build a few advanced systems. It is defined by the capacity to produce thousands of affordable, expendable platforms and sustain their deployment over extended periods. This is where India’s position becomes more complex.The United States continues to dominate the high-end segment, with platforms such as the MQ-9 Reaper and now newer low-cost experimental systems that blend precision with affordability. At the same time, it is rapidly adapting to the economics of mass drone warfare, as seen in its reverse-engineering of Iranian-style loitering munitions. Russia and Ukraine, through the ongoing conflict, have demonstrated what industrial-scale drone warfare looks like, deploying hundreds of thousands of units annually, particularly first-person view and kamikaze drones.Turkey has carved out a niche by combining affordability with export-driven scale. Its Bayraktar series has become a global benchmark for cost-effective combat drones. Iran, perhaps the most instructive example, has mastered the art of producing simple but effective long-range kamikaze drones in large numbers, fundamentally altering battlefield economics. Even Pakistan has moved aggressively, leveraging Chinese collaboration to build and induct armed drones and loitering munitions at relatively low costs.Against this backdrop, India’s challenge is not one of design but of depth. Its production runs remain limited, often in the hundreds, which constrains both operational flexibility and deterrence value. Without large-scale orders, manufacturers struggle to justify investments in assembly-line production, leading to a cycle where low demand limits supply capacity, and limited capacity restricts demand.Another dimension of this gap lies in supply chains. While India has increased indigenous content in many systems, critical components such as sensors, semiconductors, and communication modules often rely on external sources. In a prolonged conflict scenario, such dependencies could create vulnerabilities, particularly if global supply chains are disrupted.That said, India is not static. Policy interventions, including production-linked incentives, easing of drone regulations, and increased defence procurement from domestic players, are gradually reshaping the landscape. The entry of private players and startups has injected agility into the ecosystem, accelerating innovation cycles. Programmes like iDEX and emergency procurement during Operation Sindoor have also demonstrated that when required, the system can respond quickly and at scale, at least in the short term.The emerging projects such as long-range kamikaze drones and swarm systems indicate that India is acutely aware of where the future lies. The focus is shifting from standalone platforms to networked systems, from individual drone performance to collective operational effect. This conceptual shift aligns with global trends, where the emphasis is on swarming, autonomy, and resilience in contested electronic environments.In essence, India stands at a crossroads in the global drone race. It has crossed the threshold of technological viability but has yet to achieve industrial maturity. The next phase will determine whether it can convert its growing innovation base into a scalable manufacturing ecosystem capable of competing with established drone powers.The distance between India and the leaders is no longer measured in technology alone. It is measured in numbers, production speed, and the ability to sustain a drone-intensive conflict. Bridging that gap will define India’s position in the future battlespace.
Operation Sindoor: India’s drone moment
Operation Sindoor marked a doctrinal shift in India’s military thinking. Rather than treating drones as supplementary assets, the Indian armed forces integrated them across multiple layers of combat operations.From frontline reconnaissance to deep-strike missions, drones played a central role. The operation demonstrated the effectiveness of a networked drone ecosystem, where different categories of unmanned systems worked in tandem to achieve tactical and strategic objectives.
First-person view drones provided real-time situational awareness to troops on the ground. Loitering munitions conducted precision strikes against high-value targets. Surveillance UAVs extended operational visibility beyond line-of-sight constraints. Counter-drone systems ensured protection against hostile unmanned threats.This layered approach reduced risk to personnel, improved response times, and enhanced battlefield efficiency. However, the scale of deployment remained limited. India reportedly used around 100 drones during the operation, a fraction of the numbers seen in contemporary conflicts elsewhere.The lesson was clear: capability exists, but scale does not.
Nagastra-1: India’s indigenous loitering munition
At the heart of India’s indigenous drone capability lies the Nagastra-1, a loitering munition developed through collaboration between private industry and defence startups. Designed as a portable, precision-strike system, it represents India’s attempt to build a homegrown equivalent to global kamikaze drones.The Nagastra-1 is a lightweight, man-portable system that can be carried in two backpacks. It combines a fixed-wing UAV with a pneumatic launcher, a ground control station, and communication systems. With a flight endurance of up to 60 minutes and a range of 15 kilometres in manual mode, extendable to 30–40 kilometres autonomously, it offers flexibility across operational scenarios.
What distinguishes the system is its emphasis on precision and adaptability. Equipped with day and night surveillance cameras, it can identify and track targets before executing a strike. Its warhead, weighing between 1 and 1.5 kilograms, is designed for targeted engagements, minimising collateral damage.The drone operates with a man-in-loop system, allowing operators to make real-time decisions. It can abort missions mid-flight and be recovered using a parachute mechanism, a feature that enhances cost efficiency. Its electric propulsion system ensures low acoustic signatures, making it difficult to detect at higher altitudes.During Operation Sindoor, the Nagastra-1 was deployed for precision strikes against selected targets, including launch pads and infiltration units. Its performance validated the concept of indigenous loitering munitions in operational conditions.However, the scale of deployment remains limited. Orders for a few hundred units, while significant, fall short of the thousands required for sustained high-intensity conflict.
Beyond Nagastra: The broader drone ecosystem in Sindoor
Operation Sindoor was not built around a single breakthrough platform. Its significance lay in creating a layered, multi-platform drone ecosystem where different unmanned systems performed specialised roles within an integrated operational framework. This marked a shift from earlier doctrines, where drones were largely limited to surveillance. In Sindoor, they became central to decision-making, strike execution, and defensive operations.At the higher end, India deployed loitering munitions such as the Israeli-origin Harop for suppression of enemy air defences. With long endurance and advanced targeting, these systems were used to neutralise radar sites and command nodes, enabling safer follow-on operations. However, their high cost and import dependence limit their use at scale in prolonged conflicts.
Mid-tier systems like SkyStriker provided a balance between range, payload, and affordability, enabling precision strikes at distances of up to 100 kilometres. Indigenous platforms such as ALS-50 added depth to this layer, reflecting growing domestic capability in precision strike systems, even if production remains limited.At the tactical level, short-range surveillance drones, including quadcopter-based systems, delivered real-time intelligence to troops in complex terrains. First-person view drones further enhanced battlefield agility, enabling precise engagement of small and moving targets at low cost.Equally critical was the defensive layer. Counter-drone systems like Bhargavastra, supported by electronic warfare tools and jammers, ensured protection against hostile UAVs, highlighting the dual nature of modern drone warfare.What made this ecosystem effective was its integration. Surveillance, strike, and defence systems operated in coordination, reducing response times and improving accuracy. Yet, a key constraint persists. High-end capabilities still rely on imports, and overall deployment remains limited by production capacity.Operation Sindoor demonstrated that India has the foundations of a modern drone warfare architecture. The challenge now is to deepen this ecosystem, reduce dependencies, and scale it for sustained, high-intensity conflict.
The cost dilemma: MQ-9B vs mass drones
India’s acquisition of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones represents a significant enhancement in surveillance and strike capability. These high-altitude, long-endurance UAVs can operate for over 40 hours and carry substantial payloads, making them valuable assets for strategic missions.However, their cost raises important questions. At an estimated $3.5 billion for 31 units, the investment reflects a focus on high-end capability rather than mass deployment.
In contrast, the economics of drone warfare increasingly favour low-cost, expendable systems. For the same cost, tens of thousands of kamikaze drones could potentially be produced, offering greater flexibility in prolonged conflicts.This is not to suggest that high-end platforms lack value. Rather, it highlights the need for balance. A modern drone force requires both sophisticated systems for strategic missions and large numbers of affordable platforms for tactical operations.
Project KAL and Sheshnaag-150: India’s answer to Shahed
Recognising the need for long-range, low-cost strike capabilities, Indian defence startups have begun developing systems that mirror the operational philosophy of the Shahed-136.Project KAL, developed by a Noida-based company, is designed as a long-range kamikaze drone with an endurance of three to five hours. Its ability to loiter over target areas, gather intelligence, and execute precision strikes aligns with the emerging requirements of deep-penetration warfare.
The Sheshnaag-150 represents a more ambitious evolution. Designed as a swarm-capable attack drone, it combines long range, high payload capacity, and autonomous coordination. With an operational range exceeding 1,000 kilometres and an endurance of over five hours, it is intended to strike strategic targets such as logistics hubs and radar installations.What sets the Sheshnaag-150 apart is its swarm capability. Multiple drones can operate in coordination, overwhelming enemy air defences through sheer numbers and synchronised behaviour. This approach reflects the next stage of drone warfare, where individual platforms are less important than the collective intelligence of the swarm.The system also incorporates advanced software architecture, enabling drones to communicate, adapt, and execute missions with minimal human intervention. Future iterations are expected to include visual navigation systems, allowing operation in GPS-denied environments.Both Project KAL and Sheshnaag-150 remain in development. Their success will depend not only on technological performance but also on the ability to scale production.
Vayu Baan and the evolution of air-launched drones
Another significant development in India’s drone ecosystem is the Vayu Baan programme, which focuses on air-launched unmanned systems and signals a shift towards deeper integration of drones within combat operations. Designed to be deployed from helicopters, these compact unmanned platforms can function both as surveillance assets and precision-guided munitions, expanding the tactical reach of existing air assets without increasing risk to personnel.India’s Vayu Baan programme marks a decisive move towards integrating unmanned systems with traditional manned platforms, reflecting the transition from standalone drone usage to networked, multi-domain warfare. Developed by the Indian Air Force’s Directorate of Aerospace Design, the project centres on air-launched effects, where drones are released mid-flight and then transition into independent surveillance or strike roles.Once deployed, these drones unfold their wings, activate propulsion, and begin autonomous operations. With an expected range of over 50 kilometres and an endurance of around 30 minutes, they are suited for missions such as real-time reconnaissance, target acquisition, and precision engagement. Equipped with electro-optical and infrared sensors, they are designed to operate in contested environments, including GPS-denied scenarios.The concept aligns with a broader global trend of manned-unmanned teaming, enhancing battlefield flexibility while improving survivability. For India, Vayu Baan represents not just a platform, but a doctrinal shift towards faster, more adaptive, and network-centric warfare.
The scale problem: Hundreds vs thousands
Perhaps the most critical challenge facing India’s drone programme is scale. Modern conflicts have demonstrated that effectiveness is not determined solely by technological superiority but by the ability to sustain operations over time.Ukraine and Russia have deployed hundreds of thousands of drones in a single year. These numbers are not anomalies but indicators of the future trajectory of warfare.India’s deployment during Operation Sindoor, while operationally significant, remains modest by comparison. Orders for systems like Nagastra-1 in the hundreds do not justify the establishment of large-scale production lines. Without such infrastructure, scaling up during a conflict becomes difficult.The issue is not merely industrial but strategic. A country that cannot produce drones at scale risks being outpaced in prolonged engagements.
Where is India’s Shahed?
India’s push for indigenous defence manufacturing has begun to deliver visible results, particularly in the drone segment. Platforms such as Nagastra-1, ALS-50, and emerging systems like Sheshnaag-150 reflect a growing domestic capability to design and deploy mission-ready unmanned systems. Much of this progress has been driven by the increasing role of the private sector, with startups and established firms contributing to rapid innovation, supported by government initiatives, procurement reforms, and programmes aimed at boosting self-reliance.Yet, despite these gains, the central question remains: where is India’s equivalent of the Shahed-136?The answer lies in the gap between capability and scale. While India has demonstrated that it can build effective loitering munitions and long-range strike drones, it has not yet translated this into mass production. Supply chain dependencies continue to pose a challenge, particularly for critical components such as sensors, semiconductors, and communication systems. Regulatory complexities and fragmented demand further constrain the ability to establish large, sustained production lines.The Shahed is not just a drone. It is a model of warfare built on simplicity, affordability, and industrial-scale manufacturing. This is where India still lags. Projects such as KAL and Sheshnaag-150 show that the technological foundation exists, and the industrial ecosystem is evolving to support it.However, without the urgency and scale that define leading drone powers, India’s progress remains incomplete. Its drone programme is still transitioning from developing capable systems to deploying them in large numbers. Until that shift happens, India will continue to trail in a domain where numbers, not just technology, define battlefield advantage.
The road ahead: From capability to capacity
Operation Sindoor marked the beginning of India’s drone-centric warfare doctrine. It demonstrated that the country can design, deploy, and integrate unmanned systems effectively.The next phase will be defined by scale, integration, and innovation. Building assembly-line production capabilities, investing in swarm technologies, and developing resilient communication systems will be critical.Equally important will be the integration of drones into everyday military operations. Plans to establish dedicated drone units within infantry formations indicate a shift towards institutionalising unmanned systems.The future battlefield will not be dominated by a single platform but by networks of interconnected systems operating across domains. In this environment, adaptability and scalability will be as important as technological sophistication.India has taken the first steps. The challenge now is to accelerate.
