2026 global terrorism index, released on thursday The sharpest decline in deaths from terrorism has been recorded in years, yet geopolitical storm clouds loom over South Asia, the Sahel and the West, suggesting the relief may be short-livedThe geography of global terrorism has changed again. In 2025,
Pakistan Burkina Faso was replaced as the country most affected by terrorism, recording 1,139 deaths and 1,045 incidents – its worst death toll in more than a decade. This change reflects deeper structural currents
TalibanReturn of reconstitution of terrorist groups operating across open borders in Afghanistan.
For Pakistan, this change is not a sudden surge, but a sharp increase in an entrenched trend. The country has featured in the top ten of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) in each of the last 12 editions published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, but the pace of decline in recent years is striking, with incidents six times higher in 2025 than in 2020.
It is not difficult to identify the driver. The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in 2021 changed the security calculus on one of the world’s most volatile borders. Militant groups, primarily Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (ttp), has used Afghan territory as a staging post, sanctuary, and training base, launching a sustained campaign against Pakistani security forces and civilians.TTP attacks increased by 24% in 2025, reaching 595 incidents and 637 deaths, the highest figures for the group since 2011. The Balochistan Liberation Army added its own toll most dramatically through the hijacking of the Jaffar Express passenger train near Quetta, where 442 hostages were taken and dozens killed.Meanwhile, Pakistan’s relations with India deteriorated rapidly in May 2025 Indian Air Force (IAF) launched missile operations against Pakistani cities overnight, triggering retaliation and increasing regional instability.At the time of writing, Pakistan has declared a state of war with Afghanistan in February 2026 following cross-border air strikes on Kabul and Kandahar. The GTI report warns that these incidents are likely to displace populations, weaken border controls and create a security vacuum in which groups like the TTP can flourish.
India, a regional bright spotRanked 13th globally with a GTI score of 6.428, India is third in South Asia behind Pakistan and Afghanistan. But its trajectory is one of the region’s more encouraging stories.India recorded a significant improvement in its terrorism profile in 2025, with the number of terrorist attacks falling by 43% compared to the previous year, as well as deaths from terrorism, continuing a broader decline that saw India’s GTI score decline by 0.415 points over the past decade. (Note that the report does not give complete death and incidence numbers for India).The country has moved up two places in the global rankings, although its position at 13th still places it firmly among the world’s most terrorism-affected countries.Within South Asia, GTI identifies the region as the region most affected by terrorism globally, with an average score of 3.465, with India’s performance in stark contrast to its neighbours. While Pakistan tops the table globally, Afghanistan is ranked 11th despite a steady decline in incidents recorded after the Taliban came to power.Both Bangladesh and Nepal recorded stronger improvements than India, with Bangladesh seeing a 100% decline in attacks and Nepal recording no terrorist incidents in 2025 for the third consecutive year.
Good news while it lastsLook past these crises, and the 2026 report lays the ground for cautious optimism. Global terrorism deaths fell by 28% between 2024 and 2025, from 7,714 to 5,582, the lowest figure recorded since the index’s baseline period. The number of attacks fell nearly 22% to 2,944.Eighty-one countries improved their GTI scores – the highest number of annual improvements since 2021 – while only 19 countries declined, the lowest on record.The year was also notable for the absence of mass casualty attacks. The deadliest incident of 2025 was the killing of 120 soldiers in Burkina Faso’s Sahel province in October, which was carried out by JNIM (Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen). This figure compares to 237 in 2024 and more than 1,100 in 2023. The average fatality per attack fell from 2.1 to 1.8 deaths.The four groups responsible for the most deaths – Islamic State (IS), JNIM, TTP and al-Shabaab – collectively killed 3,869 people, or 70% of all terrorist deaths. Three out of four recorded fewer deaths than the previous year. The exception was TTP.Terrorism continued a long-term decline in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). For the first time, no country in the region recorded a decline in its GTI score in 2025. Deaths fell 81% from 1,064 to 205 in the same year.Iraq, once the epicenter of global jihadist violence, has seen a 99% decline in deaths from terrorism over the past two decades. Libya and Lebanon recorded zero deaths for the third and second year running respectively – results that would have seemed impossible a decade ago.Africa’s changing battlefieldThe most consequential regional story is that of sub-Saharan Africa, home to six of the ten countries most affected by terrorism and responsible for more than half of all global deaths. Yet here too, the picture is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.Burkina Faso, which will remain number one on the index in 2023 and 2024, recorded the largest absolute reduction in deaths, with the death toll falling 45% to 846. This was mainly due to a decline in civilian casualties, which fell 84% from 996 to 157.The paradox is that the country is not necessarily becoming safer – it is becoming dangerous in a different way. Fatality per incident increased to 14.3 deaths per attack, as JNIM shifted tactics towards fewer but more intense attacks, primarily targeting security forces. Analysts estimate that Burkinabé forces control 30% or less of the national territory, while jihadists maintain blockades and disrupt trade routes.This strategic development is visible in the Sahel. JNIM is no longer just insurgent – it is targeting economic lifelines. In Mali, the group attacked a fuel convoy bound for Bamako by 2025, with the goal of causing economic disruption capable of destabilizing the ruling junta. The report identifies this as a change in ambition: from weakening the regime to dismantling it.Nigeria moved in the opposite direction, and recorded the largest increase in deaths from terrorism, with the death toll rising by 46% to 750. Islamic State West Africa Province has again stepped up its campaign, with attacks increasing from 20 in 2024 to 92 in 2025.On Christmas Day 2025, the United States fired Tomahawk missiles into northwestern Nigeria, attacking IS camps in coordination with the Nigerian government, underscoring the scale of concern over the resurgence of ISWAP.The Democratic Republic of Congo reached its worst point on the index with 467 deaths in 35 incidents – an average of more than 13 deaths per attack. All incidents were attributed to IS-affiliated groups. The violence included the beheading of 70 civilians abducted from the village of Maiba and an attack on a funeral in North Kivu that killed 71 people.terror comes westThe concentration of terrorism in the Global South may obscure trends in Western democracies, where a 280% increase in deaths – from about 15 to about 57 – had a significant political impact. Australia experienced its deadliest modern attack when two jihadist extremists opened fire on a Hanukkah gathering on Bondi Beach on December 14, killing 15 and wounding more than 40.27 deaths were recorded in the US, including 14 people killed in a vehicle attack in New Orleans that killed a political commentator. charlie kirk. Two people were killed in a synagogue attack in Manchester, Britain.These incidents reflect a broader trend. Politically motivated attacks are projected to increase by approximately 20% globally in 2025. In the West, the line between terrorism and political violence is becoming increasingly difficult to define, especially as lone-actor attacks – which have accounted for 93% of fatalities in Western countries over the past five years – continue to dominate.
kids in the front rowOne of the most worrying findings is related to age. Children and adolescents accounted for 42% of all terror-related investigations in Europe and North America in 2025, a threefold increase since 2021.In the UK, 82 minors were arrested for terrorism offenses between April 2023 and March 2024, compared to 12 in 2019. The timeline of radicalization has become increasingly compressed. Where previously the journey from demonstration to operational readiness took about 16 months, it can now happen within a few weeks.Algorithmic amplification on mainstream platforms, followed by migration to encrypted messaging apps, has created what counterterrorism analysts call an “acceleration gap” – a growing mismatch between the speed of radicalization and the ability of states to respond.Between 2022 and 2025, 97 percent of plots involving minors were foiled, while 68% of plots involving only adults were foiled. Youth are being recruited, but at the moment they are also being stopped.temporary relief?The report’s authors caution against exaggerating the improvement. At the time of writing, IS has announced a new phase of operations in Syria, more than 20,000 individuals have escaped from IS-affiliated detention facilities, and the joint US-Israeli military campaign launched against Iran in February 2026 has increased the risk of proxy attacks.At the same time, jihadist territorial gains in the Sahel – partly due to falling civilian death tolls – represent a slow-growing threat that is not fully captured by headline statistics.The 2026 Global Terrorism Index registers measurable progress. But the consolidation of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict, the emboldening of IS, the rapid radicalization of youth recruits and the fragmented political environment in the West suggest that the 2025 decline may prove, as the report itself says, “a temporary reprieve for many countries rather than the beginning of a sustained downward trend”.
