3 state change reactions; Assam keeps Biswas in HimantaIt was a day of dramatic upheaval. The BJP finally managed to win the state that had become the final frontier for it in the last 10 years, Tamil superstar Vijay made a stellar political debut and looks set to become the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, while the Congress outperformed the CPM in Kerala, paving the way for a Left-free India. Amidst the anti-incumbency wave, Himanta Biswa Sharma acted strongly and led the BJP to majority in Assam for the first time on his own. The NDA’s victory in smaller Puducherry may not be in the same league, but it has served to send a message that smart politics and good alliances can help those in power consolidate themselves. The political significance of BJP’s victory is very big.

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The biggest reason for this is the continued popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi despite being in power for 12 years – a story of remarkable resilience in an era of ever-rising expectations. This reinforces the message about the party’s nationwide dominance and, along with the DMK’s defeat in Tamil Nadu, will trigger an upheaval in the Indian block ranks, making the Lok Sabha an easier place for the Modi government. The Congress has already started warming up to victory at the cost of its “ideological brotherhood” with the DMK. The BJP is now in control of the entire east except Jharkhand, where it is the principal opposition and can have realistic hope of success in the 2029 state elections. A BJP-led Bengal could make matters easier for the Center on diverse issues like GST and border fencing. This will force “secular” players to rethink their strategy as they seek to negotiate the tension between the expectations of large sections of the society adopting Hindutva themes and the need to meet the demands of Muslims. The mere presence of a large Muslim population does not provide a safe haven from advancing Hindutva sentiments.

Victory in Bengal signals BJP’s reach beyond the Hindi heartland

The importance of the fight in West Bengal goes beyond politics. It also indicates the possibility of a subject matter co-existing with regional specificity, without compromising its origins. This also shows that the roots of BJP in the Hindi belt no longer have the shackles that they used to have earlier.

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Even in Kerala, BJP managed to win three seats, which was never the case before. It is also a reminder that Modi, with his promises of development, national pride and “tough on security” credentials, can break the resistance of the satraps. Vijay also broke assumptions that had turned into certainties because of his patience – such as the Dravidian monopoly, where the office had rotated between the DMK and AIADMK for the past five decades.

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His senior and “superstar” Rajinikanth, who had the potential to challenge power and was urged by his supporters to step forward, failed to muster the courage. Vijay dared to dream big and has been rewarded for it. A sense of hatred over corruption under the DMK and increasing crimes against Dalits and women has brought them to the gates of Fort St George. DMK tried to use crude Hindi and anti-Sanatan issue. This did not work, a large number of Gen Z voters chose the new promise: Vijay, who combined freshness with time-tested tips like mangalsutra for women, managed to win the hearts of women, while also snatching away the DMK’s support among Dalits, Christians and Muslims.

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It appears that his emergence as a strong vehicle of anti-DMK sentiments also helped in attracting votes that would otherwise have gone to the AIADMK. He is on the verge of becoming the first Christian Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu (fourth in the South after AK Antony, YS Rajasekhara Reddy and Jagan Reddy). The loosening of the monopoly’s grip on the state could potentially create opportunities for a variety of players: from Seeman to the Congress and the BJP. In any case, Vijay has refrained from taking a hard line against the North and the Sanatanis, and this opens the possibility of better working relations between the Center and Chennai.

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The victory of the Congress-led alliance in Kerala has come as a consolation trophy for the Congress: something the party desperately needed to make a statement of its presence. But this success also brings with it the challenge of dealing with growing Hindu sentiment as its dependence on the Indian Union Muslim League and Christian outfit Kerala Congress (Joseph) increases. Of course, it will also have to resolve the leadership issue, with VD Satheesan unlikely to give up his claim in favor of the party seniors’ favorite – KC Venugopal – who is not an MLA. For the CPM, the defeat marks not only the defeat of the only state where they were in office, but also a further decline as an electoral force. There was no doubt on BJP’s victory in Assam. But its scale was surprising. This was achieved despite a decade in power and a determined effort towards higher Muslim integration, including the Deobandi outfit Jamaat-e-Ule-Ma abandoning AIUDF’s own Badruddin Ajmal, and smart footwork shown by CM Himanta Sarma, who opposed Bengali-speaking Muslims and termed them Bangladeshi infiltrators. He managed to unite non-Muslims, and his success exposed the Congress to the risk of appearing as a pro-Muslim organisation; This weakness may be aggravated by the alliance with IUML in Kerala as well as the weakening support base among Hindus in various parts.