union territory of PuducherryA former French colony, voting is underway on Thursday with the ruling pan-India NR Congress (AINRC)-BJP alliance is trying to come to power for the second consecutive time.The Congress-DMK alliance has emerged as the main challenge to the AINRC-BJP National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which also includes the AIADMK and businessman Jose Charles Martin’s newly formed Lachia Jananagaya Katchi (LJK). Tamil superstar Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) is also in the fray, partnering with the Neyam Makkal Kazhagam (NMK) founded by independent MLA G Nehru Kuppusamy. Despite contesting its first election, TVK may take advantage of Vijay’s widespread popularity to garner a significant share of the votes.

Puducherry: what the statistics say

There are 33 seats in the Puducherry Legislative Assembly, of which 30 are filled through direct elections. The remaining three members are nominated by the Central Government.

After Special Intensive Revision (SIR), the final voter list of the Union Territory includes 944,211 voters. In comparison, the number of eligible voters in the 2021 assembly elections was 973,314, of whom 83.8% cast their votes.A total of 294 candidates will be in the fray in the upcoming elections, which is less than 323 in the elections held five years ago.

Chief Minister N Rangasamy, who founded the ruling AINRC in February 2011 after quitting the Congress, is contesting from both Thattanchavady and Mangalam. He had also contested from two constituencies in the last election, winning in Thattanchavady but losing in Yanam.

How the 2021 competition unfolded

Seat-by-seat analysis shows that in 13 constituencies, the winning candidate got less than 50% of the total votes polled in their constituency.The victory margin on seven seats was less than 1,000, including four seats where it was less than 500. For example, in Rangasamy Yanam, independent candidate Golapalli Srinivas lost to Ashoka by 655 votes. The lowest margin was recorded in Karaikal North, where the winner got only 135 votes more than the runner-up. On the other hand, in the remaining 17 constituencies, each winner got at least 50% of the total votes polled. Only three of the winning candidates won by a margin of 10,000 votes or more. Therefore, given Puducherry’s small population and limited electorate, even minor changes in vote share could determine the outcome in many constituencies.

Seats that can decide the outcome of 2026

Apart from the closely contested seats in 2021, several high-profile constituencies are also set to play a crucial role in determining whether the NDA or the Congress-DMK alliance will emerge victorious.Thattanchavadi: The most high-profile seat is Thattanchavady, as it could play a decisive role in determining the next Chief Minister of Puducherry. CM Rangasamy is the sitting MLA, and his main rival is former chief minister V Vaithilingam, currently the Lok Sabha MP from Puducherry and president of the Union Territory’s Congress unit.Rangasamy has won from here five times, defeating CPI candidate K Sethu Selvam by 5,456 votes in the last assembly elections.

Mangalam: This is the second constituency contested by Rangasamy, repeating his 2021 strategy when he also contested from Yanam. Mangalam is currently held by AINRC and was won by its candidate C Jekoumar, who defeated DMK’s Surya Kumaravel by 2,751 votes.Yanam: Another seat associated with Rangasamy is Yanam, which shares its name with one of the four districts that make up Puducherry. What is unique is that the district is surrounded by another state – Andhra Pradesh – Yanam is represented by independent Golapalli Srinivas Ashok, who defeated the AINRC founder-president in the last election.

Mannadipet: BJP Leader and Puducherry Home Minister A Namassivayam is the sitting MLA from Mannadipet, making it another important seat to watch. He is contesting from here again and has won against DMK’s A Krishnan by a margin of 2,750 votes.Indira Nagar: The seat is an AINRC stronghold and has been with the party since 2011. Rangasamy has represented it twice, while the sitting MLA is AKD Arumugam, whose victory margin—18,531—was the highest in 2021.

Nedungdu: This is another seat dominated by AINRC and has been held by the party since 2011. The current MLA is Chandira Priyanga, who resigned in October 2023 and was the only woman minister in Rangasamy’s cabinet. Priyanga had won from here in 2016 also.Raj Bhavan: An urban constituency, the BJP will face a prestige test at Raj Bhavan as its Puducherry unit president VP Ramalingam is the candidate here. It is currently held by AINRC’s K Lakshminarayana, who also won in 2011 and 2016. In the outgoing assembly, Ramalingam served as one of the three MLAs nominated by the central government.

Mudaliarpet: BJP’s A Johnkumar is contesting against DMK’s sitting MLA L Sambath on this seat. Johnkumar, a minister in Chief Minister Rangasamy’s cabinet, is a former Congress MLA, who won from the Kamaraj Nagar constituency twice – first as a Congress candidate and later on a BJP ticket.Karaikal Answer: Only 135 votes separated the winner from the runner-up in 2021 as AINRC’s PRN Thirumurugan defeated Congress candidate AV Subramaniam. Thirumurugan is once again contesting from the seat from where he has won thrice in a row.

Bahaur: One of the six seats won by the DMK in 2021 – when it emerged as the second-largest party and the principal opposition – Bahaur is represented by R Senthilkumar of the party led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin. The victory margin here (211) was the second lowest as the DMK candidate defeated AINRC’s N Dhanavelou.Mahe: Like Yanam, Mahe also comes and shares its name with a district that is completely surrounded by another state – Kerala. The victory margin in the last election was only 300, the third lowest that year. The seat previously held by the Congress was won by the grand old party’s Ramesh Parambath, who defeated independent challenger N Haridasan Master.

Nelithope: Another constituency where the victory margin (496) was less than 500 five years ago, Nelithop was won by the BJP. Richards Jonakumar, son of Puducherry minister A Jonakumar, was the winner, while DMK’s V Karthikeyan was the runner-up.In the five Puducherry Assembly elections since 2001, voters in the union territory have not returned an incumbent government to power since the Congress-led coalition in 2006. In 2011, voters supported the AINRC within months of its formation, but the party folded after one term and was replaced by the Congress.

what happened in previous years

In the five Puducherry Assembly elections since 2001, voters in the union territory have not returned an incumbent government to power since the Congress-led coalition in 2006. In 2011, voters supported the AINRC within months of its formation, but the party folded after one term and was replaced by the Congress.All India NR Congress secured a second term in alliance with BJP in 2021, their second electoral partnership in Puducherry since joining hands for the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. Ahead of the current assembly elections, Puducherry’s Union Territory status – and the BJP-led Centre’s decision not to grant full statehood – has emerged as a major political issue that could significantly impact the outcome.Counting of votes will take place on May 4 with four states – Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal – going to polls this month.