The rupee witnessed a strong bounce, rising 151 paise from its record low to 93.19 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday, following a regulatory move by the Reserve Bank aimed at restricting the net open positions of banks in the onshore forward delivery market.In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee started the day with a green mark at 94.62 against the dollar and then gained rapidly. The move resulted in an increase of 1.6% from its previous closing level.The improvement comes after the rupee’s volatility, which had breached the 95 level at the beginning of the week and ended at 94.70 on Monday. In the past week, it had hit an all-time low of 94.84 against the dollar, prompting the central bank to intervene.As part of its latest measures, the Reserve Bank, through a circular issued on March 27, 2026, placed a limit of $100 million on the net open position of banks in rupees, compliance with which was required by April 10.Despite currency improvement, underlying pressures persisted. Forex analysts point to continued foreign fund outflows, a stronger US dollar and higher crude oil prices, all mitigating against a volatile geopolitical environment.The dollar index was up 0.32% at 99.77, indicating strength in the greenback against major global currencies. At the same time, Brent crude futures increased by 4.84% to reach $ 106.06 per barrel.A cautious attitude is visible in the equity markets. The Sensex fell 1,312.91 points or 1.80% to 71,821.41 in early trade, while the Nifty fell 410.45 points or 1.81% to 22,383.40.Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers, selling equities worth Rs 8,331.15 crore on Wednesday, data from exchanges showed.“Higher crude prices, rising trade deficit, fears of decline in remittances and continued FPI selling are putting upward pressure on the rupee,” said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Ltd.The recent trend of the rupee reflects broader pressure. It has weakened more than 4% since the start of the Middle East war on Feb. 28, 2026, and is projected to decline nearly 10 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2026.Meanwhile, official data released on Wednesday showed that goods and services tax collections grew by nearly 9% in March, crossing the Rs 2 lakh crore mark. The figure represents the third-highest monthly collection in the 2025-26 financial year, supported by revenues from both imports and domestic transactions.