Rishi Sunak on Iran crisis: ‘If you want peace, be prepared for war’
Former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the current Middle East crisis is the fourth supply shock this decade, the first being the Russia-Ukraine war and the second and third being China’s ban on rare earth exports. Writing for The Times, the former British Prime Minister said Britain had to build in flexibility because Britain has very limited strategic gas reserves that are barely enough for a few days’ supply.“The assumption was that Iran would not ultimately close the Strait of Hormuz because more than three quarters of its revenue comes from products exported through its waters. But the Iranian regime is trying to close it to all but friendly traffic. They are trying to put a dagger in the throat of the world economy to make it too costly to continue this conflict,” Sunak wrote. “If the Americans cannot keep the strait open the consequences will be serious, and not just economically. An important role of global hegemony is to keep international shipping lanes open. This is what the Royal Navy did in the 19th and early 20th century and what the US has done since 1945. One of the reasons we joined with the Americans in bombing the Houthis when I was prime minister is the Bab-el-Mandeb Freedom of navigation through the strait had to be maintained. If the US could not open the Strait of Hormuz, it would be another puncture in the Pax Americana.” The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have impacts far beyond the oil fields. “Already, restaurants in Bengaluru are closed due to gas shortages; South Korean electronics makers are worried they will soon run out of helium, a key ingredient in chip manufacturing; and domestic farmers here are threatened by rising fertilizer prices. They are currently applying the first round of nitrogen to winter wheat and winter barley. Planting of spring barley, one of our major crops, is also underway. This increase in fertilizer prices could not have come at a worse time,” he wrote. Sunak wrote that Covid taught companies and governments to be mindful of supply chain vulnerabilities and there are now encouraging signs that companies have learned this lesson. “One company, which would be important in any European war, insists on its suppliers not to use inputs from Taiwan because it is at risk of being attacked, nor China because it would be aggressive, nor the US because of its current unpredictability. This requires suppliers who supply from these locations to keep one year’s stock. A major defense firm has used its increased orders to purchase four years’ stores of rare earths as insurance against any interruption during the war,” he wrote. The events at the Strait of Hormuz should remind everyone of the risk to Taiwan of even larger supply shocks. “Preventing any conflict in the Taiwan Strait is essential. But there is a real danger that China sees how the US has already used up more than a year’s supply of Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors in this war, and seizes the opportunity. Even before this conflict, analysts believed the United States would run out of long-range, precision munitions by the end of the first week of fighting on Taiwan,” he wrote. He said, “We must accelerate the production of munitions. It is alarming that it will take Lockheed Martin seven years to quadruple production of the Patriot interceptor. If we do not want the West to decline and fall, it is time to remember what the Romans taught us: Si vis pacem para bellum (If you want peace, prepare for war).”
