He said investors will also keep an eye on developments related to the West Asia conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. Counting of votes for five assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry will begin on Monday, May 4.“The most immediate catalyst will be the results of key state elections, with investors closely watching to see if the ruling party at the Center can wrest West Bengal from the Trinamool Congress and make meaningful inroads in opposition-ruled Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) currently has a limited presence,” said Hariprasad K, research analyst and founder of Livelong Wealth.Hariprasad said crude oil remains the most important macro variable.“With Brent prices remaining elevated amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, inflation risks remain evident. For an import-dependent economy like India, persistently high crude oil prices will put pressure on the rupee – which is currently near record lows – and weigh on corporate margins as well as fiscal dynamics,” he said.Announcements of macroeconomic data, fourth quarter earnings and foreign investor trading activity will also influence stock market trends this week. “Crude oil price trend will remain the primary external variable, with the ongoing US-Iran standoff and closure of the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain volatile,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP (Research), Religare Broking.Key macroeconomic data releases include HSBC manufacturing PMI (May 4), services and composite PMI (May 6), and foreign exchange reserves data (May 8), which will provide information about economic momentum and external sector stability, he said.Major corporate earnings announcements this week are from Ambuja Cements, BHEL, Hero MotoCorp, Mahindra & Mahindra and Bajaj Auto. “Markets are likely to remain volatile and heavily news-driven in the coming week,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of online trading and wealth tech firm Enrich Money.