New Delhi: Assam is all set to vote for 126 assembly seats on Thursday (April 9). This contest has emerged as a direct fight between the Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi-led Congress in the state. Sarma is aiming for a third consecutive victory for the BJP-led alliance, while the Gaurav Gogoi-led Congress is attempting to regroup and convert anti-incumbency unrest into its electoral advantage.In the 126-member Assembly, where 64 seats mark the majority line, the outcome is likely to be determined not by a single wave, but by a host of issues in the state.See complete coverage of Assembly Elections 2026Here are the top 5 factors that could influence the decision on May 4 in Assam:1. Delimitation Domino EffectThis time the assembly election is the first after the 2023 delimitation which has redrawn the constituency boundaries based on the 2001 census. The delimitation process has reshaped constituencies and reduced minority-dominated seats from about 35 to 23. This shift has strengthened indigenous and tribal influence, benefiting the BJP, which is relying on identity politics, welfare schemes and governance delivery. In areas like Barak Valley, mergers and reclassification of constituencies have forced political stalwarts to shift ground, destabilizing long-standing vote-bank calculations that traditionally favored the Congress and the All India United Democratic Front. So, this election is not being fought on the old map, and that alone changes the arithmetic.

2. ‘Infiltration’ storyOn top of this there is the debate over the permanent identity of Assam, which has now been rescheduled for 2026. The twin issues of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) remain central, though no longer in the form of mass protests. Instead, they have become absorbed in competing political narratives. The BJP has framed its position as a defense of indigenous identity and land, heightened by controversial eviction drives in districts such as Darrang and Nagaon. On the other hand, the opposition has accused the government of weaponizing these issues for polarization. 3. ‘Orunodoi’ Economy BJP’s ‘double engine’ governance relies heavily on Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT).Fighting against anti-incumbency, Himanta Sarma’s election strategy largely hinges on welfare delivery, especially this time through his flagship Orunodoi scheme. With over 26 lakh women beneficiaries receiving monthly financial assistance, the scheme has helped build a loyal base of what the party calls ‘Shramarthi’ voters. Initiatives like Atmanirbhar Assam have further strengthened this reach. On the other hand, the Congress and the ruling parties are focusing on the “cost” of these schemes, pointing to the state’s rising debt and “paper leak” scams in recruitment as evidence that welfare is being used to hide the lack of sustainable job creation.4. Tribal and tea garden swingBeyond the statewide narrative are decisive swing areas. Tea tribes, spread across about 35 to 40 constituencies, remain one of the most influential but fluid voter groups. Both sides have invested heavily in outreach here, but there is no guarantee of uniform consolidation. Similarly, after delimitation the political importance of Bodoland Territorial Area has increased and its seats have increased from 11 to 15. The BJP’s alliance with the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) is being projected as a sign of stability coupled with the peace deal with the Bodo groups. Still, as in past elections, changes in these areas could swing many seats in one direction. 5. Fragmented oppositionThe arithmetic of “anti-BJP” votes will be the final decision. At present, the anti-BJP space is divided between the Congress, AIUDF, Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad. Whether this will ultimately benefit Assam remains to be seen. Vote fragmentation had worked in the BJP’s favor in 2021 when the ruling alliance secured 75 seats. For Gaurav Gogoi, the election is as much about leadership as it is about arithmetic and about presenting a united Congress front at a time when many party leaders had defected to the BJP ahead of the elections. For Himanta Biswa Sarma, the strategy is to keep the opposition divided while consolidating gains in all areas.As Assam goes to the polls tomorrow, this election can in many ways be seen as a referendum on whether the BJP’s mix of identity politics, welfare expansion and strong leadership has become the state’s dominant political model, or whether there is room for a revival of opposition-led politics. Assam will decide tomorrow what matters most to it. We will know the decision on May 4.