New Delhi: BJPIts maiden victory in West Bengal with more than two-thirds of the seats and its growing numbers in the Rajya Sabha, a landslide victory in the assembly elections, will allow the party to set the terms in next year’s presidential election, after losing majority in the Lok Sabha elections had cast doubt on its dominant performance since 2014.Its overwhelming dominance in the assemblies along with allies in big states like Maharashtra, Bengal and Bihar – the three assemblies with the most weight among the states after UP in the electoral college for the presidency – will be effective in neutralizing the loss in the Lok Sabha, where its strength has fallen from 303 to 240 in 2024. All elected members of Parliament and Legislative Assemblies, excluding nominated MPs, form the electoral college. Parliament and Assemblies have equal voting shares, but while the value of each MP’s vote is the same (it was 700 in 2022), the importance of an MLA’s vote varies depending on the size (as per 1971 census) of the population that his Assembly represents.The vote of an MLA from UP at a value of 208 was almost 30 times the vote of an MLA from Sikkim, valued at 7 in 2022. This figure is likely to remain more or less the same next year as the census data is stable and the strength of the Assembly, barring vacancies, is also stable. The existence of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, which was dissolved in 2018 and was not part of the last presidential election, will be a factor, however minor.The decline in the Lok Sabha led to a decline of 44,100 in BJP’s votes in the electoral college, from a total of 10,86,431 in 2022. A poor performance in the assembly elections could have compromised its right to dictate terms, even with allies, as has been the case with previous governments when the dominant party, BJP or Congress, fell short of a majority.After the Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP was dependent on TDP and JD(U) to cross the 272-mark for majority, the opposition termed the two regional parties as its “crutches” for survival and predicted that the government would soon fall, claiming that the results would prove to be an inflection point in its strong run since 2014 and that the assembly elections would bring grim news.BJP has been in a good position for more than two years.

Uttar Pradesh holds key position in Presidential elections with votes of over 83,800 MLAs

All elected members of Parliament and Assemblies, excluding nominated MPs, form the electoral college. Parliament and Assemblies have equal voting shares, but while the value of each MP’s vote is the same (it was 700 in 2022), the importance of an MLA’s vote varies depending on the size (as per 1971 census) of the population that his Assembly represents.The vote of an MLA from UP at a value of 208 was almost 30 times the vote of an MLA from Sikkim, valued at 7 in 2022. This figure is likely to remain more or less the same next year as the census data is stable and the strength of the Assembly, barring vacancies, is also stable.The decline in the number of Lok Sabha seats led to a decline of 44,100 votes for the BJP in the electoral college, which stood at 10,86,431 in 2022. A poor performance in the assembly elections could have compromised his authority to dictate terms, even with allies.After the Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP was dependent on TDP and JD(U) to cross the 272-mark for majority, the opposition termed the two regional parties as “crutches” for survival and predicted that the government would soon fall, claiming that the results would prove decisive in its strong run since 2014.BJP has been in a good position for more than two years. It won massively in Haryana despite adverse conditions and the NDA’s strength in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly increased from 150 to 237 during the last presidential elections and from 125 to 202 in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. It now has 207 MLAs compared to 77 in West Bengal. Ahead of the presidential election in July next year, UP is the most important with more than 83,800 votes in the electoral college.