Why will BJP and JDS keep a close eye on DK Shivkumar government?

New Delhi: D.K shivkumar The era has begun in Karnataka. CongressThe biggest troublemaker has finally arrived as the Chief Minister of his state – a dream he cherished and worked for for years. Shivakumar took the oath of office in the name of the revered saint “Gangadhar Ajja” while holding a copy of the Constitution in his hands. His promotion comes after a long wait, but it has the potential to change the political dynamics in the state. Karnataka Congress chief stakes claim to the top post for the first time in 2023 after leading the party to a record victory BJP In the assembly elections. However, the Congress high command then favored Siddaramaiah’s experience and asked Shivakumar to wait for his turn under a rotational power-sharing arrangement.

karnataka assembly 2023 results

The fact that the Congress high command managed to ensure a smooth transition of power despite hurdles has put the grand old party in a strong position ahead of the 2028 assembly elections in the state. The Congress will hope that this leadership change will help the party counter the anti-incumbency wave, if any, against the Siddaramaiah government.But this leadership change is not just about countering the anti-incumbency wave. It is also about how the change in caste equations with this leadership change could affect the success of political parties in the state.It is no surprise that the BJP and JD(S) would be closely watching the 64-year-old Vokkaliga Congress stalwart serving as the Chief Minister. The Congress move forces both the parties that hold the opposition spot in the state to go back to their drawing boards and rework their strategies and balance the caste factor ahead of the 2028 assembly elections.

Why can the rise of Shivkumar become a headache for BJP?

For the BJP, Shivakumar’s promotion could potentially disrupt the strategy the party has spent years building in Karnataka.State politics has long revolved around two dominant communities – the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas. Simply put, they hold the keys to power. Members of both these groups have held the post of Chief Minister more times than any other community in the history of Karnataka, making them central to every party’s electoral calculations.While the BJP’s strength has traditionally come from the Lingayat belt, especially under BS Yediyurappa, its expansion plans depended on making deep inroads into the Vokkaliga-dominated old Mysuru region.This was basically the reason behind BJP’s alliance with JD(S). The BJP’s strategy was clear: it would bring in its Lingayat support base, while helping the HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy-led JD(S) garner Vokkaliga votes. Together, the alliance was expected to form a coalition capable of challenging the Congress across southern Karnataka. But the elevation of Shivakumar, one of the state’s most influential Vokkaliga leaders, as chief minister complicates that calculation.Shivakumar gave the Congress something that its rivals would have loved that it did not have, a powerful Vokkaliga face not only part of the party but actually holding the top post in the state. His rise comes at a time when the BJP is carefully balancing its caste equations. The party appointed Vokkaliga leader R Ashok as the leader of the opposition while handing over the state unit chairmanship to Lingayat leader BS Yediyurappa’s son BY Vijayendra. The message was clear: a Lingayat would lead the organization and a Vokkaliga would lead the fight against the government.Now that Shivkumar is in the Chief Minister’s chair, the balancing process may have to be changed.The concern within a section of the BJP is that it may be difficult to consolidate support for the NDA in southern Karnataka because of a Vokkaliga chief minister. There is also a possibility that the Congress may want to further expand its social alliance by reaching out to sections of the backward classes and Dalits, who may be disappointed with Siddaramaiah’s departure.For a BJP that was hoping to expand beyond its traditional strongholds, Shivakumar’s rise presents a new challenge.

How will JD(S) now be forced to protect its core support base

And while the BJP has the caste balance in check, its ally Janata Dal (Secular), led by former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy, faces a real challenge.The party has considered the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region as its impregnable fortress. The community, which is one of the most powerful agrarian and socio-political factions in Karnataka, has traditionally stood behind the Deve Gowda clan, seeing them as the ultimate guardians of Vokkaliga pride.However, Shivakumar being the Chief Minister directly threatens this monopoly as he is no longer just a political challenger but now has the authority as Chief Minister to woo the community with his administrative decisions. The JD(S) now needs to rework the strategy to protect its core voter base from a formidable, incumbent Vokkaliga CM who has the state machinery, necessary resources and a point to prove. This becomes even more challenging given the fact that JD(S) has been on a decline for some time now.In the 2023 assembly elections, the party won just 19 seats and secured around 13% vote share, in sharp contrast to the Congress, which came to power with 135 seats. It is noteworthy that the Congress has made big gains in many parts of the old Mysore region, which has been a JD(S) stronghold for years.The rivalry between Shivakumar and Kumaraswamy has also intensified in the last few years. The two leaders have repeatedly locked horns, with Kumaraswamy accusing the Congress of trying to weaken the JD(S) politically, while Shivakumar has rejected the claims, saying the regional party remains indispensable in Karnataka politics.The JD(S), which had shared power with the Congress in the past, now has a task ahead of it. There is a need to formulate a strategy to ensure that Chief Minister DK Shivakumar does not marginalize the party in state politics. DK Shivakumar, on the other hand, will have to prove that his governance skills are as good as his crisis management skills. The Congress stalwart, who has spent years building his image as a skilled organizer capable of delivering victories and protecting the party in its toughest moments, will now have to show that he too can lead the party successfully.