.

Based on data from 1971-2020, the LPA of seasonal rainfall over the entire country is 87 cm. Rainfall between 90-95% of LPA is considered ‘below normal’.The IMD forecast shows a 31% chance of ‘below normal’ rainfall, while there is a 35% chance of deficient rainfall (below 90% of LPA) – a clear indication of a high probability of below normal rainfall over the country.Although the weather department will release more specific updated forecasts on the spatial distribution of rainfall during the season (June-September) in the last week of May, the ‘probability forecast’ map released on Monday clearly shows ‘below normal’ rainfall in the country’s ‘monsoon core zone’ – the region that includes most of central and west India that largely depends on rain for farming operations.This scenario is most likely to impact irrigation, drinking water in arid and semi-arid areas, reservoir capacity and hydroelectric potential at a time when the country is already facing high input (diesel and fertilizer) costs for agricultural operations and overall high energy costs due to the war in West Asia.Deficient rainfall not only adversely affects the area of ​​Kharif crops (sown in summer) but also adversely affects the area of ​​Rabi crops (sown in winter) due to low moisture content in soil and less water for irrigation in reservoirs, thereby affecting the total food grain production, while the country has taken several measures over the years to make its agricultural sector drought-proof.Under the possible development of El Nino – climatic conditions associated with sea surface warming in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – this year, there is a high probability of reduced rainfall during the second half of the monsoon (August–September). However, other factors, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may come as a savior. Positive IOD results in more rainfall. Therefore, we expect it to counter the impact of El Nino during the second half of the monsoon season,” Mohapatra said.

.

Currently, neutral IOD conditions exist over the Indian Ocean, and the latest climate model forecasts indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop by the end of the southwest monsoon season.Snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere also affects the monsoon. The IMD said snowfall levels during the last three months (January to March) were slightly below normal. It says, “The extent of winter and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a general inverse relationship with seasonal rainfall following the southwest monsoon across the country.”