Election Exit Poll: Assembly Election Exit Poll 2026: How accurate were the predictions for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and others last time. india news
New Delhi: Now that voting is almost over in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Union Territory Puducherry, attention is quietly turning to the much-awaited exit polls. Exit polls or opinion polls are usually released half an hour after the polling ends and give an idea of how people might have voted.Exit polls often set the first story about who might win, but they are not always accurate. In past elections, some have had the overall trend right, while others have been far from the final results.
The last round of assembly elections in five states: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry and West Bengal offers a useful benchmark.Here’s what exit polls predicted last time for the assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal:
Kerala
Exit polls in Kerala correctly predicted the victory of the Left Democratic Front (LDF), but underestimated its dominance. According to the average of surveys, the LDF was projected to win around 82 seats, while the United Democratic Front (UDF) was projected to win around 56 seats. However, the final results showed a very strong performance by the LDF, which won 99 seats – 17 more than anticipated. On the other hand, UDF could win only 41 seats and fell short by 15 seats.
Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls were broadly accurate in predicting victory for the DMK-led alliance, although they slightly overestimated its scale. According to the average estimate DMK+ got around 166 seats compared to the actual 159. The AIADMK+ alliance was projected to win around 63 seats, but performed better than expected with 75 seats – 12 more than anticipated. While the overall verdict was forecast right, the exit polls did not fully capture the resilience of the AIADMK-led bloc.
Assam
Assam was one of the most accurately predicted elections. The exit polls projected the BJP-led NDA to win around 71 seats, while the Congress-led alliance was expected to get around 54 seats.The final results were remarkably close to these estimates. The NDA won 75 seats, just four more than expected, while the opposition alliance won 50 seats, slightly less than expected.
Puducherry
In Puducherry, exit polls correctly predicted an NDA victory, but underestimated its number of seats. According to the average estimate, the NDA got around 21 seats compared to the actual 16.The UPA’s performance more than matched forecasts, winning 9 seats as expected. However, the biggest difference came from independents.
west bengal
The biggest fallout came in West Bengal, where exit polls failed to predict both the scale and clarity of the mandate. The average of surveys suggested a competitive race, with around 155 seats projected for the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and 126 seats for the BJP-led NDA. In fact, the TMC won comprehensively with 216 seats – 61 more than expected – while the NDA managed only 77 seats, 49 seats short. The Congress-led alliance was expected to win about 12 seats, but could get only one seat.
voting
Do you believe exit polls accurately reflect election results?
Overall, the five states present a mixed picture of the accuracy of exit polls. While states like Assam and Tamil Nadu saw fairly accurate forecasts in terms of overall direction, Kerala and Puducherry revealed differences in margins and seat share estimates. There was clearly a glimpse of missing the mandate in West Bengal.