Elections in Tamil Nadu are not decided by party arithmetic alone. In all its regions, the dominant caste factions – Vanniyars in the north, Gounders in the west, Thevars in the south, and Dalit and Nadar communities in key areas – continue to shape alliances, candidate selection and, often, the final outcome.The Vanniyars are concentrated in the northern districts like Viluppuram, Dharmapuri, Krishnagiri, Salem, Cuddalore and Vellore. The influential OBC community rose to political prominence after the Vanniyar Sangam led by S Ramadoss led violent protests in 1989 before the M Karunanidhi government implemented the 20% quota for most backward classes.The community has since largely supported the PMK, which was founded by Ramadoss and is now under the disputed control of his son Anbumani Ramadoss. A large section of Vanniyars have also joined DMK and ADMK. This time, NDA member Anbumani’s PMK faction is contesting on 18 seats, while Ramadoss senior has fielded candidates on 35 seats, mostly in the northern belt.

Shortly before the 2021 assembly elections, the ADMK government introduced a 10.5% internal quota for Vanniyars, but the Supreme Court struck it down. The incoming DMK government adopted a cautious approach, saying that only the Center has the legal authority to conduct the caste census.The DMK government has three senior ministers from the community. CN Ramamurthy, founder-president of the Vanniyar Federation, says, “Both the DMK and ADMK allot more seats to Vanniyars, which shows the importance of the community.” The DMK also got a boost last week when Guru Viruthambigai, daughter of late PMK leader Guru, met CM MK Stalin to extend support.If the Vanniyars are in the center of the north, the Gounders are dominant in western Tamil Nadu, especially in Coimbatore, Erode and Salem districts. A large section of community leaders like ADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami and former ministers SP Velumani and P Thangamani continue to support him. KA Sengottaiyan, another stalwart from the community, has joined Vijay’s TVK.In the 2021 assembly elections, the western belt was the only region that remained with the ADMK, winning 29 out of 48 seats there. This time Stalin has handed over this area to former minister V Senthilbalaji. “DMK candidates will win in many constituencies in the western region and we will form the next government,” Senthilbalaji said. times of India . In southern Tamil Nadu, Thevar influence remains strong in districts such as Ramanathapuram, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar, Theni and Madurai. The Mukkulathor group – comprising the Kallar, Maravar and Agamudaiyar communities – has long been considered a key support base of the ADMK, especially during the tenures of MGR and Jayalalithaa.But that base has shown signs of stress. The alleged insult by Palaniswami angered some sections of the community, which expelled three of its key leaders from the party: AMMK chief TTV Dhinakaran, former chief minister O Panneerselvam, and Jayalalithaa’s aide VK Sasikala. In 2021, the ADMK won just 16 out of 58 seats in the south, where the DMK and Congress won 33 and eight seats respectively.After this Panneerselvam joined DMK. Sasikala has launched the All India Puratchi Thalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam and has fielded 77 candidates with the stated objective of defeating the ADMK candidates. His campaign focuses on the theme of “Palaniswamy betrayer”.Dalits remain another major electoral force, with their population ranging from 15% to 34% in many districts, except Kanyakumari, where their numbers are relatively small. SCs like Paraiyar, Pallar and Arunthathiyar hold significant political importance.DMK ally VCK, led by Thol Thirumavalavan, remains a major voice among Dalit voters, especially among the Paraiyar community in the north.Among Pallar leaders, Puthiya Tamilgam’s S Krishnasamy is contesting independently on 60 seats after alliance talks with ADMK failed. In the NDA camp, Dalit organization chief John Pandian has been fielded from Rajapalayam on the BJP’s lotus symbol. Vijay’s TVK and Seeman’s NTK have also made some dent in the Dalit vote bank.In many southern areas, the results also depend on Nadars, the economically dominant community in Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar and Kanyakumari. Historically, the community has been associated with the Congress, primarily because of former CM K Kamaraj, a Nadar, who played a key role in enabling reservation for backward classes through the First Amendment to the Constitution.After Jayalalitha’s death, the ADMK lost most of its Nadar support due to the leadership’s perceived affinity towards the Gounders and Vanniyars. The DMK has since captured part of that space, with Kanimozhi Karunanidhi, the party’s MP from Thoothukudi, focusing heavily on the area. BJP leaders Tamilisai Sundararajan and Pon Radhakrishnan are also counted among the prominent faces of the community.