IPL final toss decision: Does bowling first really work? What does history say after RCB’s big call? cricket news
New Delhi: Royal Challengers Bangalore captain Rajat Patidar opted to bowl first after winning the toss against Gujarat Titans in the IPL 2026 final on Sunday, backing his bowlers to build an early lead on what he described as a good batting surface.The decision immediately gave rise to the familiar debate that accompanies every IPL final: does batting or bowling first offer a better path to the title?A look at the history of the IPL shows that there has not been a huge advantage either way, although teams setting targets have had a slight advantage in the biggest match of the tournament.Batting first maintains a narrow leadIn the 18 IPL finals played before Sunday’s title clash, teams batting first have won the trophy 10 times, while teams chasing have emerged victorious on eight occasions.The numbers show that scoreboard pressure often plays a crucial role in finals, where nervousness and high stakes can make chasing difficult even on batting-friendly surfaces.However, the toss decisions tell a more nuanced story.In the last seven IPL finals, captains have decided to field first. Of those seven occasions, only three have resulted in title-winning performances for the team that chose to chase.The first such success came in the inaugural final in 2008 when Rajasthan Royals defeated Chennai Super Kings after choosing to bowl. Kolkata Knight Riders repeated the feat against Punjab in 2014, while Chennai Super Kings successfully chased the target against Sunrisers Hyderabad in 2018.Mixed record of teams chasing the targetMany captains who opted to field first in the finals faced defeat. RCB themselves experienced that misery in 2009 when they decided to chase the target against Deccan Chargers and missed out.Recently, Kolkata lost to Chennai in the 2021 final after choosing to bowl, while Punjab Kings suffered a similar loss against RCB in the 2025 summit clash.However, the Patidars seemed unaffected by historical trends. The RCB skipper said the surface is unlikely to change significantly over the course of 40 overs and stressed the importance of focusing on the present rather than dwelling on past results.Gujarat Titans captain Shubman Gill revealed that his team would have preferred to bat first anyway, which he believed could help the fast bowlers in the early overs.With teams batting first having only a slight advantage in history, Sunday’s final is unlikely to be decided by the toss alone. Execution under pressure, rather than statistics, could ultimately determine who lifts the IPL 2026 trophy.