New Delhi: The IMD said the south-west (summer) monsoon reached Kerala on Thursday, three days later than its normal date. Monsoon generally enters Kerala on June 1, marking the beginning of the rainy season in India as well as sowing operations.Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala eight days earlier, on May 24. However, the early or late arrival of the monsoon has nothing to do with the overall quantitative or spatial rainfall during the four-month rainy season. The overall position of the monsoon and its progress depends on many climatic factors.Amid the growing threat of El Nino, the IMD has already predicted that monsoon rainfall this year will be ‘below normal’ with a 60% chance of it being ‘deficient’, raising fears of drought.

Announcing the onset of monsoon over mainland India, the IMD said, “Southwest Monsoon will advance over remaining parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, parts of west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep Islands, Kerala and Mahe, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and some more parts of southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal on June 4.” Has increased.”“Conditions are favorable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Goa, parts of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, some more parts of Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, southwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of west central, east central and northeast Bay of Bengal, some parts of northeast states during next 2-3 days,” it said.The IMD had earlier predicted the arrival date of monsoon in Kerala as May 26 (+/- with a model error of 4 days). However, the forecast made on 15 May did not prove correct.The Meteorological Department has been issuing operational forecasts for the onset date of monsoon in Kerala since 2005. An indigenously developed state-of-the-art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for this purpose.