New Delhi: Monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 26, the IMD said on Friday, predicting an early start of the rainy season in India. Monsoon generally reaches Kerala on June 1, taking a period of seven days.“This year, the southwest (summer) monsoon is likely to establish over Kerala on May 26 with a model error of ±4 days,” the weather department said, noting that the operational forecast of its onset date over Kerala during the last 21 years (2005-2025) had proved correct except in 2015. Early or late arrival has no impact on the overall monsoon performance or distribution.Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala eight days earlier, on May 24.IMD forecasts ‘below normal’ rainfall this year amid threat of El NinoThe onset of monsoon in Kerala marks the arrival of the south-west monsoon in the Indian mainland. It is an important indicator showing the transition from hot and dry conditions to the rainy season.The weather department has already predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall in many parts of the country this year amid the growing threat of El Nino, which is always associated with scorching heat and weak monsoon in South Asia.

Meanwhile, the IMD on Friday said conditions are favorable for further advance of southwest monsoon into parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the next 24 hours.The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the onset date of monsoon over Kerala since 2005, using indigenously developed statistical models with a model error of ±4 days.The six predictors used in the model are: minimum temperature over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the South Peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over the southwestern Pacific Ocean, and lower tropospheric zonal wind over the equatorial northeast Indian Ocean. Zonal wind.