There are still 7 matches left, SRH and GT have qualified; Odds for finishing last – explained for each team
New Delhi: With 7 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, LSG and MI are already out of the playoff race. RCB, GT and SRH have now qualified. RR is ranked best among others followed by PBKS. KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but their chances are slim. There are now 128 possible combinations of results, so nothing is certain yet for any of the five left in the race. We look at the possibilities:
- RCB are now certain to qualify and at least be tied at No. 1 on points. Their worst-case scenario is a three-way tie for first place with GT and SRH
- SRH’s win over CSK on Monday means that both SRH and GT have qualified and there is a 75% chance for both of them to finish at least tied for second place.
- RR have a 43.8% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points and they can still finish in a three-way tie for second place with SRH and GT, but there is only a 6.3% chance of that
- PBKS can finish fourth with maximum chances (28.1%) or KKR (10.9%).
- KKR’s chances of making the last four, singly or jointly, are now 20.3% and if they tie for the last spot it will be with PBKS.
- DC’s chances of making the final four, singly or jointly, are now 18.8%. Their best case is only fourth (3.1%)
- CSK’s best case after Monday’s defeat is fourth place with RR or DC or both and even that has only a 14.1% chance
How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 128 possible combinations of outcomes with 7 games remaining. For each team, we looked at how many of them, individually or jointly, finish in the top four. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two, singly or combined. For example, RCB remained No. 1 in terms of points in all 128 possible combinations of match results, as sole leaders in some of them and joint leaders in others.