West Asia conflict likely to hit India Inc’s Q4 margins

But the pressure may increase in the coming financial year as companies will start buying inputs at higher prices. CRISIL “forecasts a 40-60 basis points decline in operating profit margins for corporate India in FY2027 compared to FY2026.”Rising energy prices have added to existing upward pressure on metal prices. “Base metals like copper, aluminum etc had already surged and now crude oil is rising. Most of the daily use items contain some derivative of crude oil. A rise in crude oil prices will increase the input costs of most of these companies.” said Apoorva Sheth, head of market perspective and research at SAMCO Securities. “Which were already facing margin pressure due to rising base metal prices.” Its impact may go beyond production costs in the fourth quarter. “Crude oil prices are likely to lead to sharp inflation, which is going to have an impact on the purchasing power of consumers. Higher inflation also means that the RBI will keep rates on hold for a longer period of time or perhaps, it may even be forced to hike rates. This will lead to an increase in interest costs for corporates.” Thus, if this oil shock lasts longer than expected, it is going to have a cascading impact on India Inc’s fourth quarter performance, Sheth said.“Energy costs comprise more than 20% of input costs for companies in the fertilizer, paint, tyre, ceramic and glass sectors. Since most manufacturers, such as paint and tire makers, operate with a 60-90 day inventory cycle, the full impact may not be visible in the Q4 numbers yet. “Given the normal 60-90 day inventory cycle, “Q4FY26 margins will be marginally better year-on-year, but sequential pressure is real. “The full impact of the rise in crude prices will be felt in Q1FY27, which will make crude facing a tough environment unless the Hormuz disruption is resolved quickly,” Sheth said. Energy companies present a mixed picture. “Upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India benefit from the rise in crude oil prices in March, which helps offset the cool period of January-February,” Sheth said. Downstream oil marketing companies (OMCs) may face pressure as retail fuel prices remain tight despite higher crude costs, while gas utilities are particularly vulnerable to rising LNG prices. and limited ability to pass on costs. The government has approved Rs 30,000 crore compensation for LPG under-recovery in OMCs, but a further rise in crude prices could increase the burden. “Renewable energy companies could benefit from higher crude prices as consumers look for alternatives to fossil fuels,” Sheth said.
