New Delhi: Even though India is facing energy disruptions due to the West Asia crisis, there could be more troubles for the economy. The IMD on Friday confirmed its forecast of ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall this year, while further lowering the rainfall threshold during the June-September season, which has a high probability of ‘deficit’ rainfall, also known as a dry year.According to the IMD, rainfall during the season is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) – revised down from 92% estimated in April – with a 60% chance of ‘deficient’ rainfall (less than 90% of the LPA), a situation that could not only impact the agriculture sector but also negatively impact water reservoirs, groundwater recharge and hydropower potential, leading to a crisis at multiple levels.

The IMD attributed the monsoon decline to the possible development of strong El Nino conditions – a climate phenomenon characterized by warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific – which is often associated with harsh summers and weak monsoons over India.Accordingly, the IMD has also indicated a hot June in the country, and has predicted ‘above normal’ heatwave days in June over many parts of UP, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. However, Rajasthan and Jharkhand may experience ‘below normal’ heat wave days during the month.The latest climate model forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season,” IMD chief Mrityunjay Mohapatra said, noting that it is expected to move from weak in June to moderate in July-August and strong in September, impacting the entire rainy season.In such a scenario, there is a possibility of a slight delay in the onset of monsoon over Kerala compared to the normal date of June 1 and its subsequent progress over the rest of the country, as well as a delay in commencement of sowing operations, as more than half of India’s cultivated area remains rain-fed.Although the IMD had a few days ago predicted the onset date of monsoon over Kerala as May 26 (+/- with a model error of four days), it now expects it to be any day within the next seven days. Since the ‘monsoon core zone’ – an area encompassing most of central and western India, which largely depends on rain for farming operations – is also predicted to receive ‘below normal’ rainfall, its impact will be felt on the total area of ​​kharif crops and their final production.The risks to the country’s agriculture sector may further increase due to the crisis in West Asia, which has already put pressure on the availability of inputs (diesel and fertilizers) and their costs, thereby impacting the rural economy and ultimately India’s economy in the current financial year.

However, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the country is fully prepared to deal with any situation and is prepared with contingency measures in terms of other interventions such as selecting drought-tolerant and climate-resilient crop options (such as low-water-intensive varieties of millet and paddy, other crops) in vulnerable districts and providing adequate inputs (seeds and fertilizers) to farmers.Contingency measures include promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties on a large scale, weather-based agro-advisory services, efficient water management and location-specific adaptation strategies to reduce agricultural losses and protect farmers’ livelihoods.Chouhan asked state governments to be prepared for challenging weather conditions in view of the threat of El Nino and assured them of all possible help from the Central government, adding that there is adequate availability of seeds and fertilizers to meet the demand during the upcoming sowing season.The minister also asked states to prepare their agricultural roadmap based on agro-climatic conditions, available resources and local capacity during the concluding day of a national conference on Kharif preparedness on Friday amid increasing risks to agricultural operations due to El Nino.