India’s total fertility rate (TFR), or the average number of children a woman has, has fallen further to 1.9 from 2.1, according to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2024. Except for six states – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand – the TFR in all other states has fallen below the replacement level. Delhi (1.2) is the lowest, followed by Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal where the TFR is 1.3.When the TFR is 2.1, it is called replacement level because a woman who has about 2.1 children in her lifetime will, on average, replace herself and her spouse. When fertility remains below this level over time, population growth slows and may eventually become negative, depending on the age profile of the population and the increase in life expectancy.A look at the percentage change over the decade before the report shows that Bihar has seen the lowest decline in TFR, with a mere 9.4% decline from a TFR of 3.2 in 2012-14 to 2.9 in 2022-24. Chhattisgarh and Assam are also two high-TFR states, which have seen a relatively smaller decline of 11.5% and 13%, respectively. Over the same period, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, which already had a very low TFR of 1.7, fell by 29.4% and 23.5% respectively. States where the average number of children born to a woman fell below replacement level more than a decade ago also have the lowest proportion of the 0-14 age group in their total population.

Working population is increasing despite decline in fertility In Tamil Nadu the 0-14 age group constitutes only 18% of the population whereas in Bihar it is 31.5%. In Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab this ratio is around 19%. Almost one in four people (24%) in India is in the 0-14 age group.India’s working age population (15–59 years) is still growing even in very low fertility states, indicating that the demographic window for India is not yet closed. The 15–60 age group constitutes 66.4% of India’s population (up from 64% in 2014) while the dependent population of 0–14 years is (24%) and the population above 60 years is less than 10%.However, this window is expected to close soon as the working age population peaks as can be seen in states like Tamil Nadu where the proportion of working age population has increased by barely 0.6 percentage points from 67.2% to 67.8% in the decade before this report.The proportion of people over 60 in India has increased from 8.6% to 9.7% and this has increased in all states. The state with the highest proportion is Kerala (15%) and the state with the largest jump in the proportion of 60+ population between 2014 and 2024 is Tamil Nadu – from 10.6% to 14.2%. Assam has the lowest proportion, at 7.6%.

“We can expect an acceleration in fertility decline and we still have high mortality rates, especially infant mortality, and our total mortality rate is also comparatively high. But we are far from reaching zero population growth or population stabilization because a very large population of young people is still in the reproductive age group. So despite the decline in fertility rates we will continue to see considerable growth because of this pace,” said fertility and population expert Professor Arokiasamy Periyanayagam.