With three playoff spots already locked by RCB, GT and SRH, the fight for the last remaining spot has been reduced to five teams. Rajasthan Royals In the best position, Punjab Kings still control most of their own destiny, while Kolkata Knight Riders, Delhi Capitals and Chennai Super Kings Both victory and outside help are needed.With only seven league games remaining, every result now directly changes the equation for someone else.

Rajasthan Royals: One win may be enough, but two wins seal it

RR are in the strongest position among the chasing pack as they still have two matches left and already have 12 points. Wins against Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians will take them to 16 points, which almost guarantees qualification regardless of other results.The big question is whether one win in two can still be enough. If RR beats LSG in Jaipur, they move to 14 and immediately put pressure on PBKS, KKR, DC and CSK, none of whom can comfortably afford another defeat.In that scenario, RR would want:

The ideal RR scenario is that they claim two wins and reach 16 points, thus eliminating every other team from contention, regardless of their results.The matter of concern for Rajasthan is speed. They have lost four of their last five matches and their NRR of 0.027 offers a bit of respite if many teams finish on 14 points. A heavy defeat in any of the remaining games could drag them into dangerous territory.

Punjab Kings: Beat LSG and hope the chaos continues behind them

PBKS have 13 points from 13 matches, which makes their equation deceptively simple: beat LSG in Lucknow and they have 15 points.This number could be quite a lot as none of KKR, DC or CSK can go beyond 15. But if RR gets two wins in its remaining two matches then PBKS will become vulnerable. Other than that, both in terms of form and scheduling, PBKS is on a good track. They have lost five consecutive games and will be playing after many of their direct rivals have already completed their matches.Best case for PBKS: :

However, a defeat to LSG almost certainly ends PBKS’s campaign. They will remain on 13, RR and CSK can cross this figure with one win each, and KKR can move ahead with two wins.

Chennai Super Kings: Hinges on math more than speed

After CSK’s defeat to SRH they need the most mathematically impossible combination of results among the teams still alive.They have 12 points from 13 matches and with a win against GT in Ahmedabad they can only reach 14 points.But 14 alone is unlikely to be enough unless everything else goes in their favour.They need this to give CSK a real chance: :

This is already a narrow path, and yet the net run rate could complicate matters. CSK’s NRR of -0.016 is better than DC and slightly better than KKR, but not strong enough to feel comfortable with many teams finishing at 14.The biggest problem for CSK is that they no longer completely control the roof of the rival teams. RR can still reach 16, PBKS 15 and KKR 15.

Kolkata Knight Riders: Two wins or nothing

Apart from RR, KKR is the only other team in the target-chasing group with two matches left. With 11 points from 12 matches, they cannot afford to lose.KKR will get 15 points if they win against Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals. Anything less is eliminated.But even two wins cannot resolve the matter completely. KKR’s qualification chances are largely linked to RR and PBKS.The ideal KKR scenario looks like this: :

If all this happens, KKR will finish 15th and possibly grab the fourth position.There is also a scenario where KKR ends up tied with PBKS at 15. In that case, the net run rate decides the final position. KKR’s current NRR of -0.038 means they simply can’t muster a win; Margins can matter.What helps KKR is pace. Unlike others around them, they have won four of their last five matches and suddenly it looks like the team is peaking at the right time.

Delhi Capitals: Beat KKR and pray for collapse elsewhere

DC have the toughest equation among the realistic contenders as they have only one match left and a low net run rate.With 12 points from 13 matches, a win over KKR also takes them to 14 points. This means Delhi cannot qualify on its own terms.To qualify DC, they need to: :

But still, NRR can become a major factor. DC’s current NRR of -0.871 is the weakest among all the contenders. If the qualifying points are tied, Delhi will almost certainly suffer a loss.The irony is that DC may still have a big role in deciding the playoff race even if they fail to qualify. A win over KKR knocks Kolkata out and potentially opens the door for RR or PBKS. Meanwhile, a defeat could directly hurt KKR.