El Nino has begun, the latest update from the European Weather Agency indicated on Thursday. According to this, the temperature in the rapidly warming Pacific Ocean crossed the 0.5 degree Celsius limit of El Nino in May. This is likely to lead to changes in atmospheric conditions that are projected to have a profound impact on global weather – including indian monsoon – in the coming months.The release from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is the first update from a major global weather agency on the state of the Pacific Ocean in June. Most agencies said last month that El Niño was on the verge of establishing, with US government institutions giving an 82% chance of it forming in the May–July period.

M Rajeevan, a veteran meteorologist and former secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said, “The latest charts from ECMWF show that the 0.5 degree threshold has been crossed. Officially, the El Nino phenomenon will be declared only if these changes persist for at least three months. But this is of academic interest. Changes in the atmosphere associated with El Nino are already being seen and its impact is being felt.”The ECMWF update came on a day when the monsoon reached the Indian mainland (Kerala) three days late from its normal date of June 1. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said the monsoon is likely to reach the west coast and more parts of Karnataka, move towards Andhra and cover TN in the next two-three days. “The intensity of rainfall is not likely to be high in these areas,” he said.As far as the threat of El Nino is concerned, Mohapatra said updates from other agencies should be awaited to get a clear picture. US government agencies and the IMD may release their forecasts within about a week. The IMD has predicted a below normal monsoon this year by 90% of the long period average, which is in the ‘deficient’ (below 90%) range. The Australian Weather Bureau said late last month that temperatures in the area known as Nino 3.4 – the most tracked region for El Nino in the central-east equatorial Pacific – were 0.67 degrees Celsius above normal. This is above the 0.5°C threshold used by most agencies for the onset of El Niño. The Australian Bureau’s standard is 0.8°C.According to the latest ECMWF seasonal forecast, temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region rose 1 degree Celsius above normal in late May.