A CAPF officer stands guard while voters wait to cast their votes at a polling booth in Purba Bardhaman during the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026 on Wednesday. (@CEOWestBengal/ANI Photo)

Exit polls on Wednesday agreed that the BJP-led alliance will easily win in Assam, the UDF will oust the LDF from power in Kerala and the AINRC-BJP alliance will retain Puducherry, but there was disagreement on the results in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.The most shocking prediction was Axis My India’s prediction that there would be a tough contest in Tamil Nadu between the Vijay-led TVK (98-120 seats) and the DMK alliance (92-110) – with the AIADMK-led NDA also lagging behind in the 234-member House, in that order. If we look at the other three exit polls, all have given majority to the DMK-led alliance, although it has reduced compared to five years ago.

Vijay’s TVK blockbuster debut in Tamil Nadu?

On West Bengal, while Axis My India did not release its findings on Wednesday and some other well-known pollsters also preferred to wait for another day, out of the three polled here, P Mark estimated that the BJP is likely to get a majority in the 294-member assembly and the matrix has given the saffron party an edge, although not a majority in the state which it has never won in the past. In contrast, a third survey, People’s Pulse, projected a decisive TMC victory, which would give Mamata Banerjee her fourth consecutive term in office.All four exit polls suggested that the NDA was likely to get a two-thirds majority in the 126-member Assam Assembly, which would also mean that the BJP would get a majority on its own in the northeastern state for the first time.The Congress-led alliance was projected to get 24 to 40 seats.If Left loses it will not be in power in any stateIn Kerala, the consensus was that the UDF would win, although estimates ranged from 70 out of 140 seats at the bottom of the matrix range to 90 at the top end of the Axis My India range. It was estimated that the LDF would get a maximum of 69 seats, which would mean that for the first time since 1977, the Left would not be in power in any state. The record of exit polls in India has been poor. The results will be revealed on Monday 4th May.