China hands Donald Trump a reality check about its rise

The art of taking a knee: China hands Donald Trump a reality check about his rise

TOI correspondent from Washington: If symbolism is the first language of diplomacy, then US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing this week was akin to the geopolitical translation of a changing world order: a confident, assertive China speaking as an equal – if not superior – power to an American president who is increasingly eager for accommodation rather than confrontation.Summit between US President and Chinese leader Xi Jinping On Thursday, it came across not as a meeting between an existing superpower and a challenger, but between a cautious petitioner and an overbearing host. In carefully choreographed remarks, Xi invoked the “Thucydides trap” — the theory that war often erupts when a rising power threatens to displace an established one — while cautioning Washington against mishandling Taiwan. In contrast, Trump lavished praise on Xi, praising future trade deals and emphasizing agricultural purchases, investment and trade access. The contrast was impressive not only in tone but also in substance. China’s official readout of the meeting prominently featured Xi warning that Taiwan remains “the most important issue in China-US relations” and that “Taiwan independence” and peace in the Taiwan Strait are “as incompatible as fire and water.” Beijing also stressed its opposition to the “militarization of the Strait” and cited tensions over Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Israeli attack on Iran. However, the White House readout left out Taiwan entirely. Instead, the US account highlights economic cooperation, Chinese purchases of US agricultural products, market access for US companies, cooperation on fentanyl, and expanded trade relations. Trump declared that relations would be “better than ever” and spoke of a “great future”.The divergence underlined what many analysts see as a dramatic reversal in US-China relations.For years, Washington’s bipartisan foreign policy establishment positioned China as a revisionist challenger and the US as a status quo power to set the terms of engagement. But as Trump’s tariff offensive failed to sway Beijing and China weaponized its dominance over rare earths supply chains, the optics in Beijing suggested a different reality: China appears increasingly comfortable setting red lines while Washington seeks stability and economic relief.Xi gave special importance to the invocation of Thucydides’ trap. The phrase originates from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who described the Peloponnesian War and famously wrote that it was “the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta” that made conflict inevitable. In recent years, political scientist Graham Allison popularized the concept in his 2017 book Destined for War, which argued that the structural rivalry between rising China and the established United States risked catastrophic conflict if not carefully managed.Xi has referenced the concept before, but his use of it in Trump’s presence carries unmistakeable symbolism. Xi declared, “Changes not seen in a century are accelerating.” “China and the United States need to overcome the Thucydides Trap and join hands to create a future.”The subtext was clear: Beijing is no longer talking as a junior player seeking accommodation under the US-led order. It is increasingly being talked about as a peer power and pushing Washington to adjust to the multipolar reality.Trump, meanwhile, seemed eager to do exactly the same. Rather than revive the strident rhetoric that once defined Republican China policy, Trump adopted the language of managed coexistence. Xi told him, “There are no winners in a trade war – Trump had not publicly opposed it.”This change has notably silenced many China supporters within the Republican Party. Figures who once warned of existential competition with Beijing have largely fallen silent as Trump moves toward what some analysts describe as a “commander in peace” pragmatism toward China, even while projecting military might against smaller adversaries elsewhere.“Donald Trump is a dove in chief,” former Pentagon official Dan Blumenthal recently said in Politico. “He wants stability. He is very influenced by Chinese power and he does not believe that we are in any position to win the strategic competition at this time.”That assessment is reinforced by a stream of recent intelligence and military analyzes that paint a troubling picture for Washington. The Joint Staff’s intelligence directorate warned its chairman, Gen. Dan Cain, that China was selling weapons to key Middle Eastern partners while US stockpiles meant to protect Gulf allies were depleted during the Iran conflict, according to a report revealed this week. The analysis reportedly worried Pentagon officials because Beijing was effectively arming countries that Washington itself was struggling to defend.China has expanded its role as an emergency energy supplier after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global markets – despite tensions. Beijing has reportedly stepped up to provide energy assistance to all US treaty allies or strategic partner countries, including Australia, Thailand and the Philippines. The intelligence assessment concluded that China had “seized in the 39-day conflict to expand its military, economic and diplomatic influence around the world.This influence is increasingly visible not only in the Gulf region but across Africa, where Chinese infrastructure financing and security partnerships are outpacing US involvement. Washington’s decades-old alliances are showing strain amid Trump’s tariff threats, erratic diplomacy and transactional foreign policy style.Even the atmosphere at the Beijing summit reflected the changed balance. Trump, as usual, using his trademark hyperbole, told Xi that the US CEOs accompanying him – including Elon Musk and Tim Cook – had come to China to “pay respects”. Xi responded with cool composure.Where Trump was personal and flattering, Xi remained measured and institutional. While Trump praised the relationship, Xi spoke of “strategic stability,” “managed competition” and the need for both powers to work “in the same direction.”It was less the chemistry of two friends than the choreography of two powers accepting a changing hierarchy – with Beijing growing increasingly confident that history, economics and strategic momentum were leaning in its favor.

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