In Assam, the BJP is projected to score a hat-trick of victories with a big win over the Congress, which is struggling in the northeastern state.While in Kerala, the CPM-led LDF may signal the end of the only Left government in the country. In PuducherryThe ruling NDA is likely to retain power with a comprehensive victory over the Congress-DMK alliance.The exit polls released on Wednesday after polling concluded in four states and one Union Territory (UT) presented an inconclusive picture where, if the exit poll data holds true, strong incumbents, rising challenges and new entrants could come together to shape the election outcome.With results due May 4, projections show both continuity and churn across the region, underscoring how state-specific dynamics continue to define voter behavior.

opinion poll

Bengal nail biter!

In West Bengal, the numbers point to one of the tightest contests in recent memory.While individual exit polls vary, the broad trend suggests an almost evenly polarized voter divide between the TMC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has left no stone unturned to breach Mamata’s bastion.According to surveys, both parties got around 145 seats each in the 294-member assembly, while smaller parties and independent candidates were expected to get only a marginal presence.Such projections indicate possible structural shifts not only in competitive races but also in state politics.If exit polls are to be believed, the BJP, once a peripheral force in West Bengal, has consolidated its position as the main challenger, ending the dominance of the ruling TMC.At the same time, TMC’s ability to maintain parity in these projections shows that the incumbent still enjoys significant grassroots support, especially in key districts where high turnout was recorded.Nearly 90 per cent turnout was recorded in both phases of the Bengal elections, the highest since independence, reflecting intense voter participation.Districts such as East Bardhaman, Hooghly, Nadia and Howrah reported particularly strong participation, suggesting that the electoral stakes were widely recognized by voters across sectors. High turnout in tightly contested elections often introduces an additional layer of unpredictability, making the final outcome difficult to predict despite near-identical projections.

A surprise awaits Tamil Nadu?

Despite Axis My India’s bold predictions, the election story in Tamil Nadu is more nuanced.Most exit polls indicate that the DMK-led alliance led by Chief Minister MK Stalin is on track to retain power, although with a smaller margin than its 2021 performance.This will be a significant political moment in a state historically characterized by alternating mandates between two Dravidian chiefs. Continuing to retain power would indicate a degree of stability and voter support that incumbents have not often enjoyed in Tamil Nadu.However, the emergence of Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay, brings a new change to the traditionally bipolar contest.While most estimates avoid placing TVK ahead of the established parties, they consistently indicate that the party is cutting into existing vote bases. Even conservative estimates suggest that TVK could influence the results in many constituencies by redistributing votes, while more optimistic estimates, such as those from Axis My India, point to a far more disruptive scenario where the party could secure between 98 and 120 seats.If such projections materialise, Tamil Nadu could witness a fundamental restructuring in its political structure, moving away from the long-standing DMK-AIADMK duopoly towards a more competitive, multi-polar structure. At the same time, projections for the AIADMK indicate partial improvement, but also highlight continued organizational and leadership challenges that may limit its ability to fully capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiment.

Status quo in Assam?

In contrast, Assam seems to be moving towards political continuity. Exit polls from multiple agencies agree on a clear result of BJP’s victory under the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.Surveys suggest that the BJP may get around 90 seats, far ahead of the Congress, which is projected to have around 30 seats, while others will have a small share of the assembly.These estimates reinforce the BJP’s strong position in the state, where it has consistently expanded its organizational base and electoral reach in successive election cycles.For the Congress, the numbers underline persistent structural challenges, with limited evidence of revival despite efforts to recalibrate its campaign strategy. If the result is in line with exit poll projections, the BJP will come to power for the third consecutive time, further strengthening its dominance in the northeastern region.

Congress predicted to win Kerala

Kerala perhaps presents the most analytically complex scenario of the five competitions. Exit polls show that there will be a tough fight in the elections between the Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front.While the opinion poll indicates a slight lead for the UDF with around 72 seats in the 140-member assembly, the LDF is projected to lag behind at around 63 seats, pointing to a narrow margin that could change based on constituency-level variations.Also, differing estimates from agencies like Axis MyIndia and PMARK highlight the inherent uncertainty in the Kerala competition.While Axis My India suggested a wide margin in favor of the UDF, PMARQ predicted a majority for the ruling LDF, indicating that the final result would remain open.This variability reflects the unique electoral behavior of Kerala, where small fluctuations in vote share can lead to significant seat swings due to the state’s competitive constituency landscape.The broader significance of the Kerala elections is a departure from historical patterns. The state has traditionally alternated between the LDF and the UDF, but LDF’s consecutive victories in 2021 disrupted this cycle.Therefore, the 2026 election becomes a test of whether the break with tradition represents long-term change or a temporary deviation. The LDF’s defeat will have ramifications beyond the state, potentially weakening the national presence of the Left, for which Kerala remains a major stronghold.The narrative of the campaign in Kerala has also evolved over time, with the early stages dominated by issues such as corruption allegations, economic concerns, administrative disputes and local grievances, including rehabilitation challenges after the Wayanad landslide and the Sabarimala gold heist controversy. These factors have contributed to more issue-driven competition, where voter decisions may depend on regime performance as well as political alignment.

NDA again in Puducherry?

In Puducherry, exit polls suggest a clear result compared to some larger states. The locally ruling NDA, led by the AINRC-BJP alliance, is expected to retain power against the Congress-DMK alliance. The high voter turnout, which was recorded at around 89.83 per cent, indicated strong public participation, while many constituencies witnessed close contests.The entry of Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam has added an additional layer of competition in Puducherry as well, especially in constituencies with socio-political overlap with neighboring Tamil Nadu. However, despite this additional complexity, most estimates suggest that the existing coalition has retained decisive gains, reflecting either continued voter support or fragmentation within the opposition vote base.According to exit polls, some common themes have emerged in all five contests.First, the role of new political entrants, particularly in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, highlights the fluidity of voter preferences and the potential for rapid change in the established political system. Second, the varying degrees of gain or loss of incumbency across states reflects the importance of local governance and regional narratives, particularly in Bengal where SIR has played an important role.Like all exit polls, these estimates should be interpreted with caution. Although they provide a directional sense of electoral mood, they are not definitive predictors of the final results. Variations in sampling, methodology, and last-mile voter behavior can produce results that differ from exit poll estimates.With vote counting scheduled for May 4, the final verdict will determine whether the trends shown by these projections translate into actual election results or whether voters deliver surprises that defy pre-result expectations. Until then, exit polls serve as an informed but provisional view of the politically dynamic moments in the states and union territories going to the polls.