Mamata Banerjee, Suvendu Adhikari

Kolkata: Bengal’s decisive match is being played in Bhawanipur, South Kolkata, where the CM Mamata Banerjee He will have to take on Suvendu Adhikari, a one-time BJP ally, which is an election contest with much bigger consequences than losing to him by a narrow margin in Nandigram in 2021. For the Trinamool Congress, retaining Bhawanipur is not just about securing Mamata’s fort and preserving the aura of invincibility around it. In many ways, this constituency represents the party’s conflict with the BJP over larger issues of identity, ideology and governance. BJP breaching Mamata’s stronghold will deal a psychological blow to Trinamool, even if the saffron party fails to win Bengal. The social mix of the constituency makes it an unusually sensitive voting area. This includes the so-called Bengali Bhadralok families, Marwari and Gujarati business families, Sikh and Jain residents, immigrants from Bihar and Odisha and a large Muslim electorate. “This diversity has turned this seat into a laboratory of competitive political tactics,” said Trinamool Ward 70 councilor Ashim Bose, whose challenge is to turn last year’s Lok Sabha loss into Mamata’s gain in his ward. The numbers show why both sides are brimming with confidence in Bhawanipur. CM Mamata won the 2021 by-election there by a record margin of 59,000 votes. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Trinamool’s lead in the assembly constituency has dropped to a little over 8,000. The BJP led in five of the eight wards, showing that while the Trinamool retained emotional capital, the saffron party gained regional depth.

One seat, many challenges

Mamata aims to prevent Bhawanipur from turning into a fragmented social competition. His party’s strategy rests on familiarity and emotional ownership. Its “Ghorar Meye” (daughter of the house) pitch attempts to reduce the election from a verdict on governance to a display of neighborhood loyalty. “If there was any other candidate on the seat, it would have been extremely challenging for us,” said Trinamool worker Subhankar Roychowdhury. This approach is appropriate for a constituency where coexistence often matters as much as ideological mobilization. In mixed wards where Bengali Hindus, non-Bengali businessmen and Muslims live in close proximity, Trinamool’s emphasis on continuity and emotional connect is meant to reassure rather than provoke. Mamata’s appeal in such areas has long rested on welfare delivery, symbolic reach and the perception that she protects the pluralistic urban social order. BJP’s strategy is the opposite. Official election managers have tried to divide the constituency into its component communities and turn each into a manageable electoral block. During the campaign, this was noticeable in wards 63, 70, 71, 72 and 74, where the BJP’s recent gains indicate growing receptivity among non-Bengali businessmen and sections of the Hindu middle class. Muslim voters also remain at the center of arithmetic. They constitute a quarter of the electorate, and a united minority vote in a close urban seat could balance fragmentation among Hindu groups. That is why notice of deletion and investigation has been given in the case of voter list. BJP worker Jayant Ghosh said that Trinamool’s hold could be loosened due to the deletion of names of about 11,000 Muslim voters in Ward 77 during the SIR. Rajan Majumdar, an octogenarian supporter of the Left Front, said, “Bhabanipur adds the