Victory‘s TVK could tilt the balance.
The campaign began as a contest over governance and welfare, and gradually transformed into a larger political argument about identity, federalism and the state’s place in the union. Thanks to Stalin’s efforts to make it a Centre-State fight, the campaign maintained a nationalized tone punctuated by political idioms specific to Tamil Nadu.
DMK Started the campaign with the advantage of a strong coalition, a governance track record and visible welfare delivery. Chief Minister and DMK president Stalin, who symbolically launched his campaign from Tiruvarur, the ancestral residence of his father M Karunanidhi, put forward schemes for women and youth. As days passed, his message transformed into a sustained attack on the BJP-led central government. Increasingly, Stalin reminded voters of the “injustice” done to the state by the Centre, and warned voters of what it might do if its ally ADMK returned to power.
Gradually, monthly cash transfers and free bus travel for women and free breakfast schemes for school students took a back seat due to an intense political pitch. At the peak of the campaign, Stalin wore a black shirt and dramatically set fire to a copy of the Delimitation Bill, thereby viewing the election as a defense of Tamil Nadu’s rights against Delhi. Yet, in his quiet, direct approach – his morning walks and impromptu meetings with beneficiaries – he returned to the language of welfare and distribution.
At the end of the election campaign, Stalin attempted to strike that balance. “After being re-elected, my first signature will be on the order to distribute coupons of Rs 8,000 to women,” he said.
Deputy Chief Minister
Udayanidhi Stalin Campaigned with vigorous speeches throughout the state. While Stalin spoke in pure Tamil, Udhayanidhi opted for a more conversational, witty style, often taking aim at Epps. Apart from AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal and RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge campaigned for the alliance, but rumors of separation spread as Rahul and Stalin did not share the stage.
The NDA flexed its national muscle with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah organizing road shows and rallies. While Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu campaigned briefly, the alliance’s most consistent campaigner was EPS.
Establishing herself as a self-made leader, EPS kept her message simple and straightforward, focusing on women’s safety, drugs and the alleged governance failures of the DMK. Launching his post-Model Code campaign in Mylapore for BJP candidate Tamilisai Soundararajan, he traveled extensively, mainly attacking Stalin and Udhayanidhi. After the DMK repeatedly called him a “slave of the BJP” and taunted him with the old image of Udayanidhi falling at the feet of VK Sasikala, the EPS launched personal attacks on the Karunanidhi family.
The coalition arithmetic – bringing together BJP, PMK and AMMK – gave strength to the NDA. There were reports of dissatisfaction over former BJP state chief K Annamalai’s exclusion from the candidate list, but he eventually joined the campaign. State BJP president Nainar Nagendran found his voice drowned out in the high-decibel presence of national leaders, while PMK’s Anbumani Ramadoss has focused on consolidating Vanniyar support in the northern and western districts for the NDA.
And the havoc of wildcard victory continued. Campaigning sparingly but drawing large crowds, he attempted to frame the contest as one between DMK and TVK, taking aim at Stalin while avoiding direct attacks on EPS and BJP. Contesting elections in Perambur and Trichy East, and fielding candidates on 233 seats, his presence was much larger than his limited campaign hours suggested.
TOI analysis of the last week of the campaign revealed that Stalin spoke for 356 minutes, EPS for 800 minutes and Vijay for just 35 minutes. Nevertheless, Vijay’s appearance holds high commemorative value – a sign that visibility and influence are no longer directly proportional in the age of spectacle politics.
Both Stalin and EPS decided to ignore the large-scale victory. The closest Stalin came to targeting him was when he urged voters in Perambur to choose between an “inaccessible newcomer who makes plays” and “a leader who is accessible and responsive”. Nam Tamilar Katchi’s Seeman made amends to DMK and ADMK by targeting Vijay while speaking eloquently on the politics of Tamil identity and self-respect.
All the contenders released promos, impactful videos and memes on social media with a vengeance. Despite its strong arguments against the alleged rise in crime and corruption, the ADMK-led alliance could not turn the tide of anti-incumbency sentiment. If the TVK pulls away from the anti-government votes – and fails to achieve a major victory on its own – and if the average voter chooses continuity and welfare, the DMK may be in a stronger position.
heated seats
EdappadiThis seat in Salem district has been the home turf of ADMK general secretary EPS for a long time. He has won five of the eight election battles fought here, including three in a row since 2011. With the support of his community, the Gounders, Palaniswami may be feeling confident about his prospects here despite the challenge from the DMK and colleagues-turned-foes like O Panneerselvam and VK Sasikala.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (ADMK)LalgudiLima Rose Martin, wife of lottery baron Santiago Martin and the richest candidate in these elections – she has declared assets worth over Rs 1,000 crore – is in the fray here. She joined ADMK only in February, but the ADMK rank and file is working overtime to ensure her victory. The DMK, which has won the seat eight times since 1971, has fielded a low-profile candidate in place of sitting MLA Soundarrapandian.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)CoalMeaningUrKolathur has been represented by CM MK Stalin in Chennai since its formation in 2011. In 2021, he defeated his ADMK rival by a margin of over 70,000 votes. The DMK will rely on Stalin’s reach, governance record and the organizational strength of the party to continue its winning streak here. The opposition has highlighted local issues and shortcomings of governance.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)Madurai CentralIT Minister Palanivel Thiagarajan is trying to score a hat-trick of victories here. But he faces a fight in the form of Sundar C of ADMK ally Puthiya Neeti Katchi (PNK). The actor-director’s wife Khushboo, herself an actress, has added a touch of glamor to his campaign. TVK’s VMS Mustafa and NTK’s K Abdul Hakim may split the minority votes, causing damage to the DMK.Previous winners: 2011 (DMDK); 2016, 2021 (DMK)PeramburThis seat in North Chennai is the seat where actor Joseph Vijay is contesting for the first time. With a large working class population, it was a stronghold of the Left before turning into a DMK stronghold in recent years. Incumbent Shekhar won in 2021 by a margin of over 54,000 votes. Vijay chose the seat because 40,000 voters had signed up on the TVP app and he hopes to win over Dalits and minorities.Previous winners: 2011 (CPM); 2016 (ADMK); 2021 (DMK)Chepauk-TriplicaneThis seat of Chennai is with DMK since 2011. Deputy CM and CM MK Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi Stalin won his first election in 2021 here by over 69,000 votes. There are a large number of Muslim voters here who can shape the outcome. The DMK focused on its welfare measures while the opposition talked about local grievances such as parking issues, narrow roads etc.Previous winners: 2011, 2016, 2021 (DMK)
Congress face of leadership, 