The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated the possibility of a return to El Nino conditions as early as May-July this year, with climate models pointing to a rapid increase in sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.WMO said in its latest global seasonal climate update that confidence in the onset of El Nino is increasing after neutral conditions earlier this year. “After a period of neutral conditions at the beginning of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, which will be followed by further intensification in the following months,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia said.He added, “Models indicate this could be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability constraint is a challenge to the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April.The report forecasts a “near-normal to near-global dominance of land surface temperatures” over the next three months, with significant regional variations in rainfall. El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is known to influence global weather, often weakening monsoon systems over parts of Asia.What is El Nino?El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by increased sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It occurs irregularly every two to seven years and typically lasts about nine to twelve months. During an El Niño event, the normal easterly trade winds weaken or may reverse, disrupting global weather patterns. This could lead to dry conditions in parts of Australia, Indonesia and South Asia, while causing heavy rainfall in parts of the Americas, as well as increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also predicted below normal southwest monsoon for 2026, the first such forecast in three years, with rainfall likely to be around 92% of the long period average.Despite growing monsoon concerns, large parts of Vidarbha region of Maharashtra are facing a severe heat wave, with temperatures reaching above 45 degrees Celsius and people facing distress. Akola recorded a high of 46.9 degrees Celsius, the highest in the country, followed by Amravati (46.8 degrees Celsius), Wardha (46.4 degrees Celsius) and Yavatmal (46.0 degrees Celsius). Hot winds and dry conditions led to the temperature in Nagpur reaching 45.4 degrees Celsius, the highest so far this season.With little respite expected, the IMD has issued an orange alert for Akola, Amravati and Wardha, warning of extreme heat, while a yellow alert is in place for Nagpur, Chandrapur and Buldhana.Akola not only topped the national charts but was also one of the hottest destinations globally, ranking third in the world that day. Amravati (fourth), Wardha (sixth), Yavatmal (eighth) and Nagpur (tenth) also feature in the global top 10, underscoring the intensity of the heatwave across the region.Authorities in Delhi have intensified preparations. Chief Minister Rekha Gupta announced measures including making ORS solutions available in schools and ensuring uninterrupted power and water supply. He has also directed the departments to ensure that workers do not face extreme heat between 1 pm and 4 pm.